UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson went down last night from Houston, Texas and besides an epic war of a main event, the main card was relatively lacklustre. From a betting perspective, we won 4 of our 9 bets and since we primarily bet underdogs it led to a just under half unit profit. It’s not our best or worst performance and obviously we’re a little disappointed to not bring home a bigger profit, but we’re not going to complain about any profit since green is good. Hopefully some of our followers were able to capitalize on some of the lines that improved leading up to the fights to make even more of a profit than we were able to lock in!
Our first bet of the night was on a heavyweight fight that we were hoping ended quickly. We put 2 units on Derrick Lewis to kick off the night vs Viktor Pesta at 2.40 (+140). By fight time, the line was as high as 2.55 (+155) at some books. Round 1 saw Pesta stuck to Lewis like a wet blanket. He got several takedowns and it was clearly 10-9 Pesta after 1. Round 2 was basically the same for 4 minutes, but Lewis turned it around at the very end and reigned down huge ground and pound for a minute or so from top position. Pesta looked completely gassed at the start of round 3. Lewis was able to capitalize, stuffing a weak takedown attempt and eventually getting into mount and smashing Pesta until the ref stepped in. We profit 2.80 units on our 2 unit bet.
It wasn’t a long wait for our second bet of the night as we had another 2 unit bet on Chris Cariaso to defeat Sergio Pettis. We got odds of 2.76 (+176) on this bet and it closed at basically the exact same level. Round 1 was ok up until the last minute or so when Pettis was able to drop Cariaso and reign down ground and pound for the last half minute or so. Round 2 was also pretty clear for Pettis. Cariaso spent a lot of time on his back and even on the feet, Pettis was probably winning with his constant jab and quick countering. Round 3 saw the tables turn. Cariaso was able to maintain top control for almost the entire round and even almost getting a heel hook right at the end of the fight. We had it clearly 29-28 Pettis with little hope for a robbery decision in our favour. The judges scored it correctly all in favour of Sergio Pettis and we lose our 2 unit bet.
Our third bet of the night was a 2 unit play against the hype of Sage Northcutt. Our play was his opponent Francisco Trevino and we bet it aat 4.75 (+375). By fight time, the line was as high as 5.00 (+400) at some books. This one didn’t last long, Northcutt was able to land a million punches and elbows in about a minute, finishing Trevino by TKO. We lose our 2 unit bet.
Our fourth bet of the night was a 2 unit play on the “trendy” dog, Adriano Martins to defeat Islam Makachev at 2.18 (+118). This line was as high as 2.35 (+135) at some books come fight time. We weren’t waiting long for a result on this bet as it took Martins less than 2 minutes to find a home for a punch that rendered Makachev unconscious. We profit 2.36 units on our 2 unit bet.
Our fifth bet of the night was another 2 unit play, this time on Daniel Hooker to defeat Yair Rodriguez at 3.61 (+261). It closed slightly worse at 3.45 (+245). This one didn’t turn out as well as we were hoping as although Hooker seemed to press the action for most of the fight he was pretty clearly overmatched by Rodriguez. All 3 judges scored it in favour of Rodriguez and our bet went down for a loss of 2 units.
Our sixth bet of the night was on Jessica Eye to defeat Julianna Pena to kick off the pay-per-view card. We got odds of 3.10 (+210) and they were basically the same leading up to the fight. Round 1 looked to be going in Eye’s favour, she was grinding down Pena against the fence, but unfortunately got taken down late in the round and Pena threw some nasty elbows on the ground before the end of R1. Round 2 was mostly Eye’s. She controlled most of the action standing, but kneed Pena in the head on the ground for which she lost a point. We had it 19-18 Pena going to the third. Round 3 saw Pena get on top early and stay there for most of the round. It was pretty clearly 29-27 going to the judges. All 3 judges saw it that way and we lose our 2 unit bet.
Next up was the first leg of our 2 team free bet parlay which featured Joseph Benavidez to defeat Ali Bagautinov and Daniel Cormier to defeat Alexander Gustafsson. Benavidez was up in the middle of the main card and the bet was 3 units at 1.69 (-145). Round 1 was fought entirely on the feet. Benavidez definitely landed more, but Bagautinov cut Benavidez’s eye which was something to watch in the following rounds. Round 2 was more of the same, but we thought Benavidez pulled ahead a bit more. 20-18 Benavidez heading to 3. Round 3 was basically a carbon copy of round 2 and we had it 30-27 Benavidez heading to the judges. Two of 3 judges agree with us and the other scored 2 of 3 for Benavidez and our parlay moves on to leg 2 in the main event.
We were now into our 4 unit bets. The first one was on Shawn Jordan to defeat Ruslan Magomedov at 2.76 (+176). A small amount of money seemed to come in on Jordan leading up to the fight dropping the line on him to 2.70 (+170). Round 1 started well with Jordan pushing Magomedov against the cage and getting a takedown or two. Unfortunately, Magomedov turned the tables with a few good strikes that seemed to potentially rock Jordan and we had the round for Magomedov. Round 2 saw Jordan again winning some of the grappling, but he looked to tired to really explode on Magomedov. Round 3 saw Magomedov picking apart Jordan on the feet. We had it 30-27 for Magomedov and that’s how the judges scored it. We lose our 4 unit bet.
The second 4 unit play of the night was on Ryan Bader. We had him to defeat Rashad Evans at 2.30 (+130). This line had dropped a bit leading up to the fight closing at 2.22 (+122). Bader’s striking was on point in round 1. He avoided Evans’ big strikes while landing many decent strikes of his own. Round 2 seemed to be going the same way and Bader even landed a takedown, but Rashad was able to get up and appeared to win the end of the round against a tired Bader. We had it 19-19 heading to the third. Bader once again won the striking in the third round in what we thought was the most clear round of the fight. We had it 29-28 Bader going to the judges. All 3 judges scored it 30-27 for Bader and we profit 5.20 units on our 4 unit bet.
We were left relying on Daniel Cormier to come through in his title defense against Alexander Gustafsson to cash our free parlay and leave us with a profit on the evening. Round 1 was Cormier’s for sure. He landed a huge takedown and spent almost the entire round in top control landing a bunch of ground and pound. Round 2 saw Gustafsson with a slight edge in the striking, but also landing a couple takedowns. We had it 19-19 heading to 3. The third round was pretty crazy as Cormier landed about 10 huge uppercuts in a row, but was on the receiving end of a huge knee by Gustafsson at the end of the round. Round 4 was razor thin. We had a slight edge for DC as he landed quite a bit more although Gustafsson had the advantage at distance. Round 5 was one of the most clear for Cormier. He landed a ton of uppercuts in the clinch and walked Gustafsson down constantly. We had it 48-47 Cormier. Two of three judges also scored it in favour of Cormier and we profit 2.07 units.
Overall, it was a pretty lacklustre main card with all 5 main card fights going to decision. Luckily, Cormier vs Gustafsson ended up being a historic fight otherwise the card would have been pretty terrible. Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates. It’ll be a few weeks until the next UFC event which is UFC Fight Night 76: Poirier vs Duffy which will be live from Ireland.