UFC 194: Alda vs McGregor is still 2 months away, but the bookmakers got on this one early, releasing full odds a couple weeks ago. At this point, we’re looking at having a total of 4 bets on the card for ~10 units, but that obviously depends on where the lines move over the next couple months. The 3 non-free bets will be available via our Cappertek profile leading up to December 12 along with bets for UFC Fight Night 80: VanZant vs Calderwood on December 10 and the TUF 22 Finale: Edgar vs Mendes on December 11. As of the writing of this piece, we are up almost 50 units on 2015 for an ROI of around 13% which is 3rd party tracked by CapperTek and also in our betting track record. We are profitable in 7 of 10 months of the year and have big profits in both 2014 and 2015, but not in 2013 where we used a less systematic approach to placing our bets. Anyway, if you look into our track record, we think you’ll see that it’s well worth purchasing our bets for just $9.95 per week. Our free betting tip for UFC 194 will be a two team parlay which tends to be our “go to” for free betting tips.
Bout positioning is still up in the air for UFC 194, but we’d assume our first parlay leg will go down either as the main event of the prelims or as an early fight on the pay-per-view. Outstanding welterweight grapplers Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson will fight in a battle that’s gotta position the winner within one or two fights of a title shot. The 37 year old Maia has been fighting in the UFC for almost 10 years, making his debut in October, 2007. He has an overall record of 21-6 and a UFC record of 15-6. He reached the pinnacle of the middleweigh division in April, 2010, losing a unanimous decision to then-champion Anderson Silva in a lacklustre fight. After going 3-2 over his next 5 fights at middleweight, he dropped to welterweight and has gone 6-2 since. His 2 losses came to a couple fo top welterweights in Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields. Maia has got to be close to the pound for pound best jiu jitsu practitioners in MMA and has a fourth degree black belt under Fabio Gurgel. Maia’s opponent, Gunnar Nelson is 10 years younger at 27 years old, but also has incredible grappling skills with a black belt in jiu jitsu under Renzo Gracie. He has a 14-1-1 overall record and in 6 fights in the Octagon, he has gone 5-1 with 4 of 5 wins by submission. He is less known for his karate skills, but also has a black belt in karate and also has 3 TKO wins that came before his UFC debut. Current odds have Maia as a slight favourite and we like him as a bet. The fight will be a big step up for Nelson who’s previous best opponent, Rick Story, beat him by split decision. We expect Nelson to have the striking advantage, but that is something Maia is used to dealing with and he has navigated successfully in the past. On the mat, we expect Maia to have an advantage in the grappling game and we expect that will allow him to at least maintain top control for the majority of the fight assuming he is unable to lock up a submission. We made Demian Maia the first leg of our free bet parlay at 1.69 (-145).
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The second leg of our two team parlay at UFC 194 will be Max Holloway to defeat Jeremy Stephens. Holloway is the big favourite in this fight at 1.26 (-385), but we think he is still worth betting. The fight will be a featherweight fight and with both men ranked in the top 10, we expect it to be an early fight on the pay-per-view portion of the card. Holloway is just 23 years old and has already been fighting in the UFC for 3 years. He has compiled an overall record of 14-3 and a UFC mark of 10-3. He is currently riding a 7 fight win streak where he seems to make significant improvements to his overall game each and every fight. As the #5 ranked featherweight, a win over Stephens and one more win against a top 5 fighter could lead him to a title shot. His opponent, Jeremy Stephens is a grizzled veteran of the UFC. He has been fighting for the promotion since May, 2007 and is now 29 years old. He sports an overall record of 24-11 and a UFC record of 11-10. Most of his UFC fights were in the lightweight division prior to the promotion beginning the lighter weight classes, but since dropping to featherweight in 2013, he has gone 4-2. In his latest outing at UFC 189, Stephens was able to finish top 10 featherweight Dennis Bermudez with an early third round flying knee that was followed up with punches. It was Stephens biggest win at featherweight to date. As stated above, we like Holloway for a parlay leg here. In the featherweight division, speed kills and we think Holloway has the speed advantage in this fight. We think it’s very unlikely that either fighter attempts to take this fight to the mat and as long as Holloway can stay technical and avoid being sucked into the type of brawl Stephens loves, this should be his fight to lose. We combined Max Holloway and Demian Maia into a parlay for 2 units at 2.13 (+113) at Bookmaker.
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That’s it for our UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor free betting tip. We’ll have more coverage for that event as well as the two that go down on the Thursday and Friday prior to it. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates! If you’re ready to pull the trigger and start following our full betting tips, sign up at CapperTek.
Maia/Holloway Parlay. 2 units at 2.13 (+113) at Bookmaker