Everything from last night at UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm will be overshadowed by the fact that Holly Holm knocked out Ronda Rousey. The card, which didn’t look all that great on paper had some good and bad moments and had finishes in more than half the fights. The crowd of ~55k was very quiet throughout the night which was disappointing because we were looking forward to one of the craziest fight atmospheres of all time. From a betting perspective, we started very slowly with 3 straight losses on the prelims. We made some of it back with a couple decent wins, but the net result was a 3-5 night for -2.88 units. It breaks our 6 UFC profits in a row streak so we’ll be looking to make that back at next weekend’s TUF Latin America II Finale.
The night began with a big bet as we had 4 units on Ryan Benoit to defeat Ben Nguyen at 2.25 (+125) to kick off the card. This line stayed pretty much where it was on fight day, only dropping slightly to 2.15 (+115). It didn’t take long for this bet to go South. Nguyen clipped Benoit with a hard strike early, making him woozy and unable to properly defend. On the ground, Nguyen was patient, waiting for his opportunity to take Benoit’s back and eventually locking up a rear naked choke. We lose our 4 unit bet.
We didn’t have to wait long for a chance to make up for our loss as we had 2 units on big underdog Anton Zafir to defeat James Moontasri at 3.90 (+290). This line climbed to as high as 4.40 (+340) on fight day. This bet looked good early on as Zafir was actually able to land a hard right and get a takedown. Unfortunately he couldn’t do much with the takedown and when Moontasri stood back up, Zafir looked completely gassed. A spinning back kick by Moontasri followed up with a spinning back fist ended the night for Zafir and we lose our 2 unit bet.
Our third bet of the night came right away as we had 2 units on Steve Kennedy to defeat Richard Walsh at 3.90 (+290). Walsh landed leg kicks early and often on Kennedy. Once Kennedy’s leg was nice and tender, he started to throw damaging strikes. At one point, Kennedy was able to get it to the ground and managed to get mount and back mount. Round 2 and 3 went pretty much the same way with Kennedy trying and failing to get it to the ground and Walsh controlling the striking. All 3 judges scored it in favour of Walsh and we lose our 2 unit bet.
After going 0-3 on our bets leading up to the fourth fight on the prelims, we were hoping for Dan Kelly to come through against Steve Montgomery. Our bet was 2 units at 3.40 (+240) and by fight time it was at pretty much the exact same level. Round 1 was all Kelly as besides a knee that Montgomery landed, Kelly was on top and in control. In round 2, Kelly looked gassed and wasn’t getting the takedowns he got in the first round. It was 19-19 going to the third. In the third round, Kelly pressed the action on the feet more than in the other two rounds and appeared to tired Montgomery out. Not only did he keep it pretty even on the feet, but he got a late takedown and reigned down ground and pound to the final bell. To us, it was pretty clearly 29-28 Kelly. All 3 judges scored it the same way and we profit 4.80 units.
Hoping momentum was now on our side, we began the televised prelims with a 4 unit bet on Richie Vaculik to defeat Danny Martinez at 1.98 (-102). The line actually flipped on this fight leading up to the fight and Vaculik was as low as 1.83 (-120) at some books right before the fight. It was advantage Martinez after 1 round as he lost the striking, but got 2 takedowns plus reversed position on Vaculik’s lone takedown and spent a decent amount of time in top position. Round 2 saw Martinez throwing wild wide strikes, many of which were landing. He also landed a couple more takedowns and we need Vaculik to get a finish to win this bet in the third. In round 3, Vaculik appeared to be pushing the action and doing better on the feet, but Martinez’s grappling was too much. It was pretty clearly 30-27 for Martinez. All 3 judges scored it 30-27 for Martinez and we lose our 4 unit bet.
Needing a win to turn our night around, we had Kyle Noke to defeat Peter Sobotta in the “co-main event” of the televised prelims. This was a 2 unit play at 2.60 (+160) which we gave out to our email subscribers for free on Friday night. In the future we plan to give the occassional free bet to our subscribers so signup here. The fight looked to be pretty even early on with Noke landing slightly better strikes. Relatively early in the first round, Noke landed a devastating front kick to Sobotta’s liver, causing Sobotta to scream out in pain. Noke followed up with ground and pound to win by TKO. We profit 3.20 units on our 2 unit bet.
Our second last bet of the night was on the opener of the main card as we had a 4 unit play on Jared Rosholt to defeat Stefan Struve at 2.03 (+103). By fight time, the line on Rosholt had climbed to 2.60 (+160) or so. Round 1 was clearly Rosholt’s as not much happened in a couple of minutes of standing action and Rosholt got and maintained a takedown for the remainder. Round 2 was pretty similar with a bit of time spent on the feet staring at each other followed by a Rosholt takedown and Rosholt top control for the remainder of the round. It was 20-18 Rosholt heading to the third. Rosholt looked gassed in round 3 and Struve pushed most of the pace, but Rosholt survived and we expected a 29-28 decision in favour of Rosholt. All 3 judges scored it that way and we profit 4.12 units on our 4 unit bet!
Our final bet of the night and the one that would determine whether we profit or not was 3 units on Uriah Hall to defeat Robert Whittaker at 1.83 (-120). Round 1 was pretty even on the feet with a slight edge to Whittaker until Uriah decided to go for some stupid spinning shit that ended with Whittaker on top of him on the ground. Whittaker stayed there and landed ground and pound for most of the rest of the round. Round 2 was entirely fought on the feet and saw Hall walking forward, but both guys landing their strikes. Round 3 was also fought entirely on the feet and while Uriah Hall pushed forward effectively at times, for the most part Whittaker was winning the striking exchanges. Whittaker ended up taking it on all 3 judges score cards and we lose our 3 unit bet.
That’s it for UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm. We’re looking forward to the TUF Latin America II Finale with a main event between Kelvin Gastelum and Neil Magny. We also posted our UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor free betting tip a couple weeks ago so check that out!