UFC Fight Night 78: Gastelum vs Magny goes down this Saturday night from the Monterrey Arena in Monterrey, Mexico. In addition to being a standard Fox Sports 1 fight card, it will feature the finals of the second season of TUF: Latin America, but I’m guessing noone outside the Latin America region will really be paying much attention to that. Just the main card odds for this card have been released so far, but we expect bookmakers will release full odds in the next couple days. Regardless, we found a parlay we like and we’re here to give it to you as our free betting tip. We’re also already eyeing a couple fighters for bets when full odds are released, but those will only be available via CapperTek. In terms of our betting results, you can see them in the side bar, third party tracked at CapperTek or for full results prior to 2015, in our track record. In summary though, we had 6 straight profits on UFC events which was broken at UFC 193 where we suffered a slight loss of 2.88 units. We have won in 3 straight months and 5 of the last 6 including an incredible month of June where we were up over 30 units! We’re hoping we can get a streak like that going again and hopefully it will start at UFC Fight Night 78!
For the first parlay leg, we look to the main event as Kelvin Gastelum takes on short notice replacement Neil Magny. Gastelum is the 24 year old winner of TUF 17 and has only lost once in his career so far sporting an 11-1 overall record with 4 knockouts, 4 submissions and 3 decisions. He is 6-1 in the UFC and also went 4-0 on TUF with 2 submissions and a TKO. Neil Magny is 28 years old and 16-4 overall. He has 5 career TKOs, 3 subs and 8 wins by decision. In the Octagon, he is 9-3 and was on fire in 2014 and early 2015, winning 7 straight fights before being submitted by Demian Maia. Our model favours Gastelum in this fight and he’s going to be the first leg of our parlay. Magny is more of a mid-upper tier welterweight, beating many of the division’s mediocore fighters, but losing to the great fighters. His 7 fight win streak can mostly be explained by the fact that none of those fighters were close to being elite in the welterweight division. As soon as he made a step up to face Demian Maia, he was absolutely dominated and forced to submit in the second round. We feel like Gastelum is another step up for Magny that he won’t be able to handle. Make Gastelum the first leg of your parlay at 1.37 (-270).
The second leg of our free 2 team parlay will be Ricardo Lamas. Lamas faces longtime vet Diego Sanchez in a featherweight co-main event. Lamas is 33 years old and 15-4 overall. He is 6-2 overall in the UFC with his only losses coming to current champ Jose Aldo and #3 featherweight Chad Mendes. Diego Sanchez is also 33 years old although it feels like he’s much older given how long and how many wars he has been in in the Octagon. Overall, Sanchez is 25-7 with 16 of those wins and 7 of those losses in the UFC. He actually won the first season of TUF as a middleweight which is pretty crazy considering he is now fighting at featherweight. You can also take many of Sanchez’s wins with a grain of salt as he has a habit of pushing forward aggressively in the last 10 seconds of the round which sometimes wins him rounds he doesn’t deserve on judges score cards. One of the worst instances of this was his split decision win over Ross Pearson in his most recent fight that he was clearly losing. 2 of 3 judges awarded him the fight and it will go down as one of the worst decisions in history. Also notable is the fact that Sanchez hasn’t fought in 15 months and ring rust could be a factor. In the fight with Lamas, Lamas is strongly favoured by our model and we think he has the skill advantage in most areas this fight could take place. For this reason, we made Lamas the second leg of our two team parlay at 1.15 (-650). Our free bet then becomes a 3 unit parlay on Gastelum and Lamas at 1.58 (-170) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our UFC Fight Night 78: Gastelum vs Magny free betting tip! We hope you choose to tail our winners at CapperTek.
Gastelum/Lamas Parlay. 3 units at 1.58 (-170) at 5Dimes