UFC on Fox 17: Dos Anjos vs Cerrone II Free Betting Tip

After 3 straight cards last weekend, we’re back this weekend for some more betting tips, this time for UFC on Fox 17: Dos Anjos vs Cerrone II. Unfortunately, the first two events of last weekend didn’t go quite as planned as we lost 8.20 units across both events. Luckily, we made much of that back after a 3-1 performance at UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor which earned us 5 units of profit. Overall on the year, we’re up 53.39 units for an ROI of 11%. This means if your account started at $1,000, it will now be at $1533.90. Not a bad return for 1 year and definitely beats the stock market. If you want access to our full bets and want to check out our third party tracked record, go to our CapperTek page.


The second fight on the prelims at UFC on Fox 17 will feature a lightweight battle between Nik Lentz and Danny Castillo. The line on this fight is very close as the best you can currently do on Lentz is 1.95 (-105) while the best odds available for Castillo sit at 2.00 (+100). Nik Lentz is a 31 year old former NCAA Division I wrestler and has an overall MMA record of 25-7-2. He has been fighting for the UFC since UFC 103 in September, 2009 and has compiled an Octagon record of 9-4-2. His opponent, Danny Castillo is 36 years old and a former NAIA wrestler. He has a 17-9 overall record and a 7-6 Octagon record. He has been fighting in the UFC since being absorbed as a part of Zuffa’s shutdown of WEC. In WEC he had a record of 5-3. We like Lentz in this spot and were quite honestly a bit surprised at the price we were able to get on him. He opened as a slight favourite and it looks like the betting public was even betting against him a bit to drive the line slightly higher (or the line got better because vigorish drops once people hit the low limit opening lines). Our model also favours Lentz and there are a couple major factors that stand out. The first is Castillo being on the wrong side of 35. We have seen time and time again that once guys cross that 35 year line (or even younger in the lighter weight classes), their speed and chin become liabilities and they tend to get caught a lot more easily. In addition, not only is Castillo 36, but he is also 1-4 in his last 5. You may argue that 3 of the 4 losses were non-unanimous decisions, but the fact remains he has only been able to win 1 of his last 5 fights and that is further evidence that he is on a decline. We bet 2 units on Nik Lentz at 1.95 (-105) at Pinnacle.


That’s it for our UFC on Fox 17: Dos Anjos vs Cerrone II free betting tips! Be sure to sign up at CapperTek if you want full access to all our bets for th event! It currently looks like there will be 3 additional bets to go with this free bet.


Nik Lentz over Danny Castillo. 2 units at 1.95 (-105) at Pinnacle

One thought on “UFC on Fox 17: Dos Anjos vs Cerrone II Free Betting Tip

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