UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit Free Betting Tip

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit goes down on Saturday, January 10 from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. We posted our free bet to CapperTek a couple days ago and as promised we’re here with our write-up. In terms of our betting results, we had a huge year in 2016 bringing in over 60 units in profit! That means if you began the year with $1,000 and never adjusted your bets as your bankroll went up, you ended the year with over $1,600! Our ROI was double what it was in 2014 at just under 13%. We were profitable in 9 of 12 months and the months that we weren’t profitable in were relatively small losses. This is all tracked in detail by third parties both at CapperTek and betmma.tips. You can also check our betting track record for our full betting history. If you want to purchase our full bets for UFC 195, you can get them exclusively from CapperTek for just $9.95.

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In the main event of UFC 195, Robbie Lawler will defend his welterweight title against exciting striker Carlos Condit. The 33 year old champ, Lawler will be looking to defend for the second time after winning the title against Johny Hendricks at UFC 181 in December, 2014. Lawler’s overall record sits at 26-10 (1) and he has gone 7-1 in his current UFC stint after his contract with Strikeforce was purhcased by the UFC. His current stint is his second with Zuffa as he went 4-3 and was cut in 2004. The challenger, Carlos Condit is 30-8 overall. He is 7-4 in the UFC and only 2-3 in his last 5, but to be fair, one loss was a title shot against Georges St Pierre, another loss was against Lawler’s predecessor, Johny Hendricks and one loss was by knee injury against Tyron Woodley. Condit is the slightly younger man in this fight at 31 years old, but he has also been fairly inactive lately, fighting just twice in 2014 and 2015 combined. In terms of betting odds for this fight, the line has become a lot closer over the last couple days. Lawler opened as a 1.69 (-145) favourite, but has since climbed to 1.87 (-115). Lawler is favoured by our model in this fight and we think he’s worthy of a bet. Firstly, Lawler was fighting at middleweight for much of his time in Strikeforce and it’s been clear that he belongs at welterweight in his current UFC stint. Secondly, he has already beaten a couple of the top contenders at welterweight which has forced the UFC to go to the number 4 man in Condit. Finally, Lawler has had more fights recently and when a fight is relatively close, it’s proven that the more active fighter tends to get the job done. With all that said, we placed a 2 unit bet on Robbie Lawler to defeat Carlos Condit at 1.87 (-115) at BetOnline. (These odds are currently only available at Pinnacle)

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That’s it for our UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit free betting tip! Be sure to sign up at CapperTek to profit with us in 2016!

Bet

Robbie Lawler over Carlos Condit. 2 units at 1.87 (-115) BetOnline

3 thoughts on “UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit Free Betting Tip

  1. Your math is wrong. Just because you were profitable of 60 units, doesn’t mean you would end up with $1600. Starting with $1,000 and ending up with $1,600 is a 60% ROI. A 15% ROI would bring your total up to $1,150. Units won and ROI are two very different things. The formula for ROI is total units gained including what you bet – units risked, all divided by units risked. So if you started with $1,000 and bet $1,000 and earned $600, the formula would be, (1600-1000)/1000=.60= 60% ROI.

    • Hey Brent,

      I’m fairly sure we’re saying the same thing. If you had a bankroll of $1,000 your unit size is $10. If you tailed our bets you would have bet 476 units in 2015 which in dollar value equates to $4,760. 476 * ROI of ~13% = ~60 units. 60 units = $600.

      You describe ROI in two different ways in your post. In the first sentence you describe it as your return on bankroll (profit 60 units on 100 beginning = 60%). Later you describe it as total profit divided by total risk. These are two different definitions and probably cause your confusion.

      Thanks,

      Austin

  2. It took me a while to figure it out correctly. As stating we are up 60 units and thus $600 on a starting line of $1,000 that’s a 60% ROI at first glance, but when you realize that you are up 60 units on 476 units bet, then it’s ~13%.

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