UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit Betting Results

What a way to start 2016! Not only did we have a 5-2 night on our bets for about 13 units in profit, but we witnessed an epic title fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit. If you haven’t watched that fight yet, it’s definitely worth watching. The fifth round especially, was one of the best rounds of MMA we have ever witnessed with both guys giving absolutely everything they had. We’ll look to keep the profits coming at UFC Fight Night 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz which goes down Sunday, January 17.

Our first bet of the night was on the “main event” of the prelims where we had Dustin Poirier to defeat Joe Duffy. The bet was 2 units at 2.61 (+161) and was better than where it closed around 2.35 (+135) at most books. Round 1 was completely spent on the feet and was relatively even. We felt Poirier landed slightly better strikes and we gave him a 10-9 lead. Round 2 was spent almost entirely on the ground with Poirier reigning down ground and pound from the top. We had it 20-18 heading to the third and our bet was looking good. Once again, in the third, Poirier gets the early takedown and Duffy is able to get up part way through the round, but gets taken down again. Poirier was in top position for almost the entire round. We had it 30-27 for Poirier going to the judges. The judges scored it 30-26, 30-27, 30-27 and we profit 3.22 units on our 2 unit bet.


Our second bet of the night was also our lone 4 unit bet of the night as we had 4 units on Drew Dober to kick off the prelims with a win over Scott Holtzman at 2.60 (+160). We didn’t see this fight, but judging by the stats, where Dober attempted 14 takedowns and landed 5, it appears Dober’s forward pressure was too much for Holtzman. In addition, he landed 25 strikes which is only slightly less than Holtzman’s 37. All 3 judges scored it 29-28 for Dober and we profit 6.40 units. Two bets in and we already have a guaranteed profit on the night!

Next up we had a single unit on the debuting Alex Morono to defeat Kyle Noke. We got odds of 3.75 (+275) on Morono, but it actually improved leading up to the fight closing at 4.20 (+320) and higher on many books. We gave Noke round 1. He landed the more effective strikes and caught Morono with straight punches when Morono was punching wide. Round 2 was Noke’s as well. In the first half, Morono seemed to win the striking and Noke’s nose seemed to be bothering him. At the midway point, Noke got the fight to the ground and Morono attempted to get his back, but gave up top position in the process and spent the rest of the round on his back. We needed a Morono finish in the third to cash our bet. In the third, Morono continued to win the striking and even though he was taken down, he landed more strikes on the ground and almost locked up an arm bar. It turned out we were wrong about Morono needing a decision. 2 of 3 judges scored it in favour of him and we cash our bet for 2.75 more units of profit!

Our next bet was on the first fight of the main card as we had 2 units on Abel Trujillo to defeat Tony Sims at 2.35 (+135). The line closed at 2.45 (+145). It looked bad early on as Sims appeared to be the quicker striker throughout much of the first round. Towards the end of the first, the fight ended up on the ground where Trujillo quickly locked up a guillotine. Sims tried to scramble out, but was unable to and was forced to tap. We win our bet and move to 4-0 on the night!

Next up, in the middle of the main card, we had Lorenz Larkin to defeat Albert Tumenov. The bet was 2 units at 3.25 (+225). A bit of money came in on Larkin leading up to the fight, but he closed at basically the same level. Round 1 was pretty clearly Tumenov’s. He landed far better head strikes, but did absorb quite a few heavy leg kicks from Larkin. In our opinion round 2 was probably Tumenov’s again. It was pretty similar to round 1 in that he landed far more damaging strikes, but once again absorbed a ton of leg strikes. Larkin started to land a little more in the third and we had him edging out the round, but it wasn’t enough. On our score card it was 29-28 Tumenov going to the judges. Two of 3 judges scored it the same way we did in favour of Tumenov and we lose our 2 unit bet and move to 4-1 on the night.


In the co-main event of the night we had 2 units on the ageless Andrei Arlovski to defeat Stipe Miocic. We got odds of 3.00 (+200) which was slightly higher than where it closed at 3.10 (+210). This bet didn’t last long! Miocic was able to rock Arlovski with a punch and was able to follow up and finish the Pitbull. We lost our 2 unit bet.

We had our free betting tip on the main event as we had 2 units on Robbie Lawler to defeat Carlos Condit at 1.87 (-115). This line actually ended up even around 1.95 (-105). Condit looked to have won round 1, keeping the fight at his range and landing several decent strikes. Lawler was able to fire back with some of his own, but the sum of it all tipped in Condit’s favour. Round 2 saw Lawler turn the tables. He dropped Condit at one point and was swinging for the fences every time Lawler came in. Round 3 was tough to score. Lawler landed a few very powerful strikes, but Condit landed far more volume. We had it 29-28 Condit going to the fourth. The fourth definitely went to Condit as he continued to lay way more volume and also avoided the power strikes of Lawler. Round 5 was one of the best rounds of MMA we have ever witnessed as Robbie Lawler brought everything he had and had Condit in trouble several times. Our final score was 48-47 Condit. Two of 3 judges actually scored it for Lawler and that was enough for him to retain his title with a split decision win. We profit 1.74 units.

That was it for our huge 5-2 night! We have already released our free bet for UFC Fight Night 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz which you can check out at CapperTek where you can also purchase our betting tips for future events!

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