UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs Bader Betting Results

After 4 awesome winning events, we came back down to earth with UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs Bader. Overall, we went 2-4 for a loss of 5.75 units. Even with the approximately 6 unit loss though, we still made almost 30 units in January which will go down as our best month in history. We’ll look to keep that momentum going in February starting with UFC Fight Night 82: Hendricks vs Thompson which we will likely have our free bet out for tomorrow night! If you want to tail all our betting tips and get in on our profits, you can sign up at CapperTek.

The first fight of the night we had money on was Levan Makashvili vs Damon Jackson. Makashvili was the first leg of our two team free bet parlay with Anthony Johnson being the second. The bet was 2 units at 1.76 (-135). In round 1, Jackson controlled Makashvili against the cage for the most part, but Makashvili won the striking exchanges in the brief time the fight was at distance. It was probably 10-9 Jackson after 1 round. Round 2 was basically a carbon copy with Makashvili winning the striking exchanges by a bit, but Jackson controlling against the cage for the majority of the round. It very likely was 20-18 Jackson after 2 rounds. Round 3 was the most clear of the fight as we had Makashvili winning both the striking exchanges and getting a takedown. Unfortunately a knee to a downed opponent and an eye poke led to Makashvili having a point questionably deducted. This ended up playing a big part as 2 of 3 judges scored the fight a draw and the first leg of our parlay is a push.


Next up, we had 2 units on Matt Dwyer to derail the hype train of Randy Brown at 2.40 (+140). The line dropped significantly leading up to the fight, but came back to close at 2.30 (+130). Dwyer was far more effective in round 1, landing a couple big overhand rights and controlling the distance with his leg kicks. Round 2 was very close, we gave a slight edge to Brown based on a takedown and a couple big strikes. The third round was Randy Brown’s we felt pretty clearly. We had it 29-28 Brown, but it came down to a very close second round. All 3 judges score it 29-28 Randy Brown and we lose our 2 unit bet.

In the second fight of the televised prelims, we had another 2 unit bet. This time on George Sullivan at 2.10 (+110) to defeat Alexander Yakovlev. The line closed right around even money so we slightly beat it. This bet took less than a round to go down as Yakovlev was able to grapple anytime Sullivan went for a big strike and was able to land a huge counterstrike to knockout Sullivan late in the first. It was a bad start to the night as we were 0-2 for -4.00 units.

We didn’t have to wait long for a chance to win some of it back as we had 2 units on the next fight between Wilson Reis and Dustin Ortiz. Our money was on Reis at 2.84 (+184). This line actually climbed significantly on fight day to as high as 3.25 (+225) at some books at close. Round 1 and 2 looked to be Reis’s as he outstruck Ortiz by a slight bit, but unquestionably outgrappled him. We had it 20-18 for Reis heading to the third. Round 3 was all Reis. He landed takedown after takedown against the cage and completely controlled Ortiz for the majority of the round. We had it 30-27 Reis in a fight we were very confident going to the judges. All 3 judges scored it that way and we profit 3.68 units and are close to break-even on a 1-2 night.


Next up, in the main event of the prelims, we had 2 units on Jake Ellenberger to defeat Tarec Saffiedine. We got odds of 3.29 (+229) which was slightly better than where it closed are 3.15 (+215). Round 1 was fairly close until Ellenberger landed a huge strike that rocked Saffiedine. It was still close because Saffiedine threw more volume, but we had it 10-9 Ellenberger. The momentum shifted to Saffiedine in round 2. Ellenberger was unable to land any power and Saffiedine dominated the striking. We had it 19-19 heading to the third. Round 3 was basically the same as round 2 with Saffiedine badly outvoluming Ellenberger and even landing a takedown and taking Ellenberger’s back at one point. We had it 29-28 Saffiedine, but 30-27 wasn’t out of the question. We lost our 2 unit bet.

Next up was our lone 4 unit play of the night. We had Iuri Alcantara to defeat Jimmie Rivera at 2.50 (+150). This was almost exactly where the line closed. Round 1 was fairly close. Rivera landed the bigger strikes, but Alcantara used a lot of feints and counters to land some decent strikes of his own. With a last second takedown, Rivera stole the round in our opinion. We felt round 2 was even more in favour of Rivera. He landed a takedown and more strikes and even though Alcantara dropped him at one point he did enough to get it back. It was 20-18 Rivera heading to the third. We needed an Alcantara finish for our bet to win. Round 3 saw Alcantara drop Rivera at one point, but he didn’t really follow up. He may have won the third, but in our opinion it was still 29-28 Rivera going to the judges. All 3 judges scored it 29-28 Rivera and we lose our 4 unit bet.


We went into the main event without a shot at a profit, but with 2 units on Anthony Johnson after the push on the Makashvili/Jackson fight. We had it at odds of 1.29 (-350) which was pretty far off where it closed at 1.40 (-250). This bet didn’t take long to finish our night on a winning note as it took Anthony Johnson just over a minute to knock Ryan Bader out after Bader had a failed takedown attempt. On our 2 unit bet, we profit 0.57 units.

That was it for UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs Bader. We’ll be back soon with our UFC Fight Night 82: Hendricks vs Thompson free betting tip.

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