UFC Fight Night 82: Hendricks vs Thompson went down last night and it was another profitable night for The Fight Predictor! Overall, we went 2-2 for a profit of 2.28 units. It’s not our best profit, but it falls right in line with our typical ROI of 20% or so and honestly we’d take 20% ROI at every event vs the enormous variance we’ve been seeing lately. Next up is UFC Fight Night 83: Cowboy vs Cowboy on February 21. To get our full picks for that and any other event, sign up at CapperTek.
Our first bet of the night was on the first fight of the night as we had 2 units on Alex “The Spartan” White to defeat Artem Lobov. We got odds of 2.30 (+130) which was just a little higher than where it was leading up to the fight at 2.20 (+120). White had a strong first round. His defense wasn’t perfect, but he outvolumed Lobov and appeared to rock him a couple times. Round 2 was even more in favour of White. He did a great job of avoiding Lobov’s power strikes and also cut up Lobov’s eye. We had it 20-18 White heading to the third. We also had round 3 going to White. It was a little scary in the last minute with Lobov walking forward throwing haymakers with both hands down, but White did the right things, avoiding the power strikes and eventually landing a takedown. We had it 30-27 White going to the judges. All 3 judges scored it the same way we did and we profit 2.60 units.
The first leg of our free bet parlay was the first fight of the main card. We had Noad Lahat to defeat Diego Rivas. The full parlay included Joseph Benavidez and Ovince St Preux as well. It didn’t take long for this one to hit the mat and when it did, Lahat was absolutely dominant, maintaining top position and going for submissions for almost the entirety of round 1. Clear 10-9 Lahat after 1. It didn’t take long to find a winner in round 2 as Lahat went for a takedown which Rivas time beautifully with a flying knee. That was it for our parlay as Lahat crumpled to the mat.
Our next bet was at the start of the main card as we had 4 units on Mike Pyle to defeat Sean Spencer. We got odds of 2.42 (+142) which was almost exactly where it closed. In round 1, Spencer outstruck Pyle, even dropping him at one point. The main advantage for Pyle came at the very end of the round when the fight turned into a brawl. It was clearly 10-9 Spencer after 1. Pyle rocked Spencer badly in the middle of round 2, but it seemed besides that and a takedown, Spencer won the round. We were fairly unsure who won the second, but needed Pyle to definitively win the third for a chance of our bet winning. In round 3, Pyle proved why he’s called “Quicksand”. He took down a tired Spencer and almost locked up a couple submissions. Those didn’t pan out, but a knee rocked Spencer badly and several undefended follow up strikes led to a Pyle TKO win. We profit 5.68 units and lock in a profit on the night with 1 bet remaining.
Our final bet of the evening was a 4 unit bet on Jared Rosholt to defeat Roy Nelson at 2.50 (+150). By fight time, the line on Rosholt had moved significantly, leaving him as a 2.10 (+110) underdog. Round 1 was entirely fought on the feet, but Rosholt actually fared pretty well, avoiding Roy’s big strikes and landing more often. We had it 10-9 Rosholt after 1. In round 2, Rosholt retreated for most of the round and Roy landed the bigger strikes. We had it 19-19 heading to 3. Round 3 was fairly close again, but the reason we scored it for Nelson was Rosholt retreated for most of the round and Nelson landed the harder strikes. We had it 29-28 Nelson going to the judges. All 3 judges scored it in favour of Nelson and we lose our 4 unit bet.