UFC Fight Night 85: Hunt vs Mir Free Betting Tips

UFC Fight Night 85: Hunt vs Mir goes down next Saturday (or Sunday for you Aussies) from Brisbane, Australia. It is a somewhat tough card for betting, especially when looking for favourites you want to parlay together. Not only that, but our parlays have been pretty bad lately so we don’t want to stretch to find favourites unless we’re really sure they’ll get the job done. Instead, we’re going to fade a couple line movements and bring you two bets on slight underdogs for a unit a piece. In terms of our betting results, as you are probably well aware, we killed in in 2014 and 2015. So far, 2016 has been even better than those two years with a massive January followed up by a slight loss in February and a winning month so far in March. We’re hoping to get another huge winning streak going and UFC Brisbane could be the second in a hopefully long run of profits! If you want to check our third party verified track record or buy our bets, check us out on CapperTek.

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In the co-main event, Hector Lombard returns from a 1 year PED suspension to take on Neil Magny. Neil Magny is the number 9 ranked UFC welterweight, with a 17-4 overall record and an Octagon record of 10-3. He went from what many would consider a middle tier welterweight to a top 10 guy by winning an impressive 5 fights in 2014 and another 4 in 2015. His only loss over that stretch came to number 6 welterweight Demian Maia whose jiu jitsu is off the charts good and who manages to control basically every opponent he faces. As we mentioned, the 38 year old Hector Lombard comes off a 1 year suspension for a post fight PED test failure after his win over Josh Burkman which was subsequently overturned. Overall, Lombard is 34-4 and 4-2 so far in the UFC. He is currently ranked #13 in the UFC’s welterweight division. It is also worth noting that Lombard is undefeated as a welterweight in the UFC. Both his losses for the promotion came when he was fighting as a middleweight which is a division that is not fit for a 5’9″ fighter. The odds on this fight opened with Lombard as a 1.67 (-150) favourite, but money came in on Magny and the line has now flipped with Lombard now a 2.25 (+125) underdog. We agreed with the opening line, but we don’t agree with where the line has gone. Prior to his drug suspension, Lombard would have been an even bigger favourite in this spot. Obviously there’s a risk that Lombard enters the cage looking like a completely different fighter, but we think that’s unlikely given he was only off for a year. Another risk for Lombard is the height and reach of Magny are too much for him, but given he is 5’9″, he is used to being the shorter fighter in the cage and has been able to overcome that disadvantage in several of his previous outings. At the end of the day, our model favours Lombard in this spot, but given the uncertainty, we can’t make it a huge bet. We placed a 1 unit bet on Hector Lombard to defeat Neil Magny at 2.25 (+125) at 5Dimes.

In the fight immediately before Lombard/Magny, Johnny Case and Jake Matthews will fight in a lightweight contest. This fight is very interesting as it features two up and coming prospects looking to prove they belong in the top 15. Case is 26 years old and 22-4 overall. He is undefeated in the Octagon going 4-0. Matthews is 21 years old and 9-1 overall. He is 3-1 fighting under the UFC banner. The odds have a similar feel to Lombard/Magny with Case opening as a 1.61 (-165) favourite and the public going the opposite way to drive Case up to 2.09 (+109). Also similar to that fight, our model likes the fighter the public doesn’t. We think Case will get the job done for the fifth straight time in the UFC and move one step higher in the division. We placed a 1 unit bet on Johnny Case to defeat Jake Matthews at 2.09 (+109) at Pinnacle.

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That’s it for our free bet for UFC Fight Night 85: Hunt vs Mir. We currently anticipate adding 3 bets that will be available exclusively via our CapperTek profile! Remember to also follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates!

Bets

Lombard over Magny. 1 unit at 2.25 (+125) at 5Dimes
Case over Matthews. 1 unit at 2.09 (+109) at Pinnacle

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