UFC on FOX 19: Teixeira vs Evans didn’t turn out as we had hoped. We went 1-3 on the day for a net loss of around 5.50 units. Luckily, our lone Bellator 152 play won to bring us close to -4.00 units on the day. As always, betting MMA has a lot of volatility and it’s the long term that counts. We’ll be back with bets for UFC 197: Jones vs St Preux which goes down next Saturday night on pay-per-view.
Our first bet of the night was also our free bet. We had 2 units on John Dodson parlayed with Lyoto Machida, but since Machida’s fight against Henderson was called off when Machida tested positive for a banned substance, it was a straight play on Dodson. We got odds of 1.22 (-454) which was basically where the line closed as well. Dodson made quick work of Gamburyan. It started with a left hand that knocked Gamburyan down that was followed up by about 100 upper cuts seconds later that forced the ref to jump in. We start the night with a win and profit 0.44 units.
Next up, we had a 2 unit play on Randy Brown to kick off the televised prelims against Michael Graves. We got odds of 1.95 (-105) which was quite a bit worse than where it closed at 2.30 (+130). It looked good early with Brown avoiding takedowns and winning the fight on the feet. Unfortunately he got a bit wild with a kick and Graves capitalized with a takedown. Brown was unable to stand up and went for submission attempts, but still probably lost the round. In round 2, the takedown came early for Graves. Brown was unable to get out from under Graves and eventually gave up his back where Graves was able to lock up a rear naked choke. We lose our 2 unit bet.
Looking to get back to a profit we had 2 units on Court McGee at 2.45 (+145) to defeat Santiago Ponzinibbio. By fight time tons of money had come in on McGee. The best you could do was 2.15 (+115), but at many books he was close to even money. Court looked good early on landing several decent significant strikes. Unfortunately, Ponzinibbio started to connect with his overhand right that stunned Court several times. Eventually it was too much and Ponzinibbio swarmed McGee after landing a right hand, finishing the fight with a TKO. We lose our 2 unit bet.
Our final bet of the day was a 2 unit play on Bethe Correira to defeat Raquel Pennington. We got odds of 2.65 (+165) which was worse than where it closed around 2.90 (+190). We gave Correira the edge after 1. It was fairly close, but she won a clinch against the cage over the last 30 seconds plus landed the better strikes on the feet. Round 2 was pretty similar, but we thought Pennington did enough in the closing moments to take the round. We had it 19-19 heading to round 3. Round 3 was basically impossible to score. It really seemed like a candidate for a 10-10 round with both women landing similar volume and effectiveness of strikes. We scored it 29-29, but didn’t expect the judges to come to the same conclusion. Two of 3 judges scored it for Pennington and we lose our 2 unit bet.
And that was that for UFC on FOX 19 from Tampa, Florida. We’ll be back with what we hope is a big profit at UFC 197: Jones vs St Preux next Saturday! Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates!