UFC 212: Aldo vs Holloway Free Betting Tip

UFC 212: Aldo vs Holloway goes down tomorrow night from Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Ranked among UFC pay-per-view cards so far this year put on by the UFC, it’s definitely not the best card, but it does have some notable fights. Obviously the main event fight between Jose Aldo and Max Holloway should be a decent scrap for the featherweight title, but there are a few other interesting fights like Erick Silva vs Yancy Medeiros, Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes and Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz. In terms of bets for the event, we already posted our 3 bets at Cappertek. One of those will be free here and the other two are available to subscribers or for purchase for just $9.95.


As stated above, one of the more notable fights of this card is the pay-per-view opener. It’s a welterweight fight between Erick Silva and Yancy Medeiros and it’s notable more for the violence that is likely to ensue than for its meaning in a stacked welterweight division. Silva was once considered an elite prospect in the welterweight division, but the hype has died down a lot with his 7-6 record in the UFC. At 32 years old and with 13 fights in the Octagon he’s not really a prospect anymore, but it has seemed in his recent fights like he’s made some adjustments; turning down his aggression a bit in favour of a more tactical gameplan. His opponent Yancy Medeiros is 29 years old and 14-4 overall. He’s also 1 win above 500 in the Octagon at 5-4 and has finished 10 of his 13 victories. It’s kill or be killed with Medeiros though as 3 of his 4 losses have come inside the distance. The betting line in this fight has flipped as Silva opened as a 1.67 (-150) favourite and Medeiros opened as a 2.10 (+110) dog. Since then the money has flowed in on Medeiros driving him to a 1.71 (-140) favourite and Silva to a 2.30 (+130) dog. Our math model expects Silva to win the vast majority of the time and it’s easy to get on board with that. Most of the guys Silva tend to lose to are those who would typically be around the top 15 of the division. The guys he beats tends to be the lower level guys. We would tend to put Medeiros in that lower level. Silva should basically have skill advantages in all areas so look for him to finish Medeiros early. We’re expecting an early TKO or for Silva to land something big and to follow it up with a sub. Our bet in the fight is 4 units on Erick Silva at 2.25 (+125). You can actually do slightly better than that at 5Dimes right now where the line sits at 2.30 (+130).


That’s it for our UFC 212: Aldo vs Holloway free betting tip. What did you think? Let us know in the comments or on Facebook or Twitter. Good luck with all your bets tomorrow night!


Silva over Medeiros. 4 units at 2.25 (+125) at 5Dimes.

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