As a new Reebok affiliate, I was offered a Reebok product to try out and write a review about. As someone who has spent the last 10 or so years working out pretty hard I went with the obvious choice, a lifting shoe. What did I think of it? Find out below.
The recent heavyweight title fight between a 37 year old Fabricio Werdum and a 40 year old Mark Hunt got us thinking…when are UFC fighters usually in their prime? In addition, if our memories serve us correctly, it seems like successful fighters in the lighter weight classes tend to be younger than successful fighters in the heavier weight classes. We started out by looking at the 128 male fighers ranked in the UFC’s top 15 rankings. We know, we know, these rankings aren’t always the greatest and sure fighter X should be ranked ahead of fighter Y, but who cares we are considering the dataset as a whole so if a fighter or two is subbed out, it won’t make a huge difference.
After what seems like an eternity away from the sport, there are still rumblings of a Brock Lesnar return to the UFC. Let’s face it; the heavyweight division is lacking any real drama, especially since the withdrawal of Cain Velasquez from his proposed bout with Fabricio Werdum. And even though there were so many haters during Lesnar’s reign in the UFC, we all enjoyed the ride and the hype train that came with one of the most formidable figures in modern day sport.
We at The Fight Predictor like to utlize decimal odds notation for our picks, but many of our American readers prefer the Moneyline style of plus minus odds and our European readers prefer fractional odds. This post will be a brief description of the different types of odds and how to convert between them. If you plan to get serious in your sports betting, this is likely a critical foundation you will need to have. Regardless of the odds type you most prefer, you can understand that we’ve been on fire lately with 4 straight profitable events leading to almost 30 total units in profit. Check our track record for our latest results.
Moneyline (American) Odds
This is the type of odds which many American sportsbooks will default to and many American consumers understand very well. When shown as a positive number greater than 100, it means for every $100 you bet, you get back your $100 plus whatever number is given. For example, Lyoto Machida is listed at +220 at BetOnline to defeat Chris Weidman at UFC 175. That means if you bet $100 on Lyoto Machida and he wins, you get back $320. Alternatively, if the number is negative, the given number is what you’d have to bet to get back $100. For example, Chris Weidman is listed at -200 at Sportsbook.ag to defeat Chris Weidman in their UFC 175 bout. This means if you bet $200 on Weidman, and he wins, you get back $300.
This is the odds format we favour at the fight predictor. It tells you with a decimal number how much you will get back (including your initial bet) if your fighter wins. In the same example as above, Weidman is 3.20 while Machida is 1.50. We favour this notation because you can very quickly figure out your required winning percentage to break even. You simply take 1 and divide it by the quoted price and multiply by 100. For Lyoto Machida, that equates to 1/3.20*100 = 31.25% meaning if Machida defeats Weidman more than 31.25% of the time, a bet on him would be profitable long term.
In fractional odds, your profit is the numerator while your bet is the denominator. Say Lyoto Machida was listed as 2/1 to defeat Chris Weidman at UFC 175. This means for every dollar bet, you get your dollar back plus two dollars more.
Moneyline (American) to Decimal: Positive? Add 100 and divide by 100. Negative? -100 divided by the odds plus one.
Moneyline (American) to Fractional: Positive? Divide by 100. Negative? -100 divided by the odds.
Decimal to Moneyline (American): Greater than 2? Multiply by 100 and subtract 100. Less than 2? Multiply by -100 and subtract 100.
Decimal to Fractional: Subtract 1 and take the fraction.
Fractional to Moneyline (American): Fraction greater than 1? Multiply by 100. Less than 1? Multiply by -100.
Fractional to Decimal: Add 1 and convert to decimal form.
Frequently up for debate in the MMA community is who should have won the Fight of the Night, Submission of the Night and Knockout of the Night bonus from the previous nights fights. We decided to take a look at the underlying data to see whether certain patterns exist. For instance, it seems that it is rare that a non-main card fighter gets a fight of the night bonus, and even rarer that a Facebook fighter gets any bonus at all. Does this pattern actually exist or is it a bias that our mind has fabricated?
We begin with a graph that shows the relative proportion of fights by card position along with the proportion of bonuses.
The graph clearly demonstrates that bonuses are disproportianately awarded to fighters on the main card (as a supplement, Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics analyzed fight night bonuses by fight card position and found a similar results) Interestingly, submission of the night is actually the least awarded bonus (on multiple occassions in our data it was not awarded because there were no submissions), and actually appears to be the least biased fight night bonus. For fighters fighting on the early prelims (Facebook card), their probability of getting a submission of the night award almost perfectly lines up with the proportion of fights that take place on the early undercard. For main card fighters, the probability of getting submission of the night is slightly too high, but that could be due to the small sample size rather than there actually being an underlying bias and the same goes for the prelims fighters. Similarly to fight of the night, knockout of the night is disproportionately awarded to main card fighters.
In addition to card position, we can look at weight classes that tend to win fight night bonuses.
What immediately stands out to us is the disproportionate number of fight of the night bonuses awarded to lightweight fighters. At 16, it more than doubles the number of fight of the night bonuses earned by any other weight class. It is quite possible that 155 pound fighters are the perfect combination of speed, power and endurance to produce extremely exciting fights. In terms of fight of the night bonuses, there don’t seem to be any further anomalies by weight class in the data. For submission of the night, again lightweights stand out with a sizable advantage in terms of bonuses given. At 14, there are almost double as many awards given to lightweights as any other weight class. Besides middleweights seeming slightly low, the rest of the data lines up just about how we’d expect. We should also note that at this point flyweight fights still make up a small percentage of total fights so the data for the flyweight division is expected to be lower than any other division. As most people would expect, heavyweights lead for knockout of the night awards, what isn’t expected however is that welterweights are tied for first. As expected, from welterweight down, the number of knockout of the night awards drops with the power possessed by fighters in the division. What is very strange about the knockout of the night bonus awards is how few go to light heavyweight and middleweight fighters. Many would expect, given the power in both those divisions that there would be a huge number of KOTN awards. The likely caveat, is that fighters realize the power of their opponent and thus set up their game plans to avoid absorbing a knockout blow.
Use This Data To Your Advantage
If you are a non-main card fighter, you should aim to submit your opponents if you want to win bonuses. Since submissions happen less frequently than knockouts, you have a better chance of winning a fight night bonus by locking up a nasty submission than by knocking someone unconscious.
If you are betting on the fights and would like to bet on the bonuses, look for great main card match-ups in the lightweight division to place your money on for fight of the night. For submission of the night as well, look for submission specialists in the lightweight division, but also consider welterweights, featherweights and bantamweights. Position on the card for submission of the night has been shown to not be as important. For knockout of the night, look for heavy-handed heavyweights and welterweights. Jake Ellenberger, Johnny Hendricks, Roy Nelson and Mark Hunt jump immediately to mind. If you can correctly predict who will land these bonuses on a given night, there is some serious cash coming your way.