UFC 210: Cormier vs Johnson II Best Prop Bets

UFC 210: Cormier vs Johnson II is just a week away and we’re pumped! Coming off a 3 week break always makes a card feel extra special. Even more so when it’s a pay-per view featuring a great title defense in the main event! In terms of our bets, we’re coming off a profit of more than 10 units in a clean sweep at the UFC London card and we’ll be looking to add to that on Saturday night. You can tail all our bets for just $9.95 by signing up on our Cappertek profile.

Cormier/Johnson – Under 1.5 Rounds

In their first meeting, Rumble managed to rock Cormier early. As one of the most powerful men in the UFC, Johnson tends to do this to a lot of his opponents. What Johnson is not known for is good cardio. If he is going to win, it is almost certainly a TKO and it is almost certainly early. You could bet Johnson to win by TKO which pays 2.33 (+133), but I’d prefer the protection offered by the under 1.5 rounds which sits at a similar line of 2.30 (+130). Basically betting the under 1.5 rounds instead of the Johnson by TKO prop comes down to the fact that for basically the same line we get protection against a Cormier finish early and we only give up a late TKO by Johnson which we see as pretty unlikely anyway given his past cardio issues.

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UFC Fight Night 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz Betting Results

UFC Fight Night 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz was one of our biggest profits of all time! We bet a total of 20 units and profited 21.74 units! An ROI of greater than 100% which is outstanding. So far in 2016 we have been absolutely on fire, bringing our followers over 30 units of profit and going 11-3 on our bets overall! Not only have our paid subscribers been making bank though, our free bets also both won bringing those who only follow our free plays over 4 units in profit as well! Next up, UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs Bader which will be the final event of January, going down on Saturday the 30th.

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UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs Barao II Free Betting Tip

UFC on Fox 16 which features the much anticipated bantamweight title rematch between Renan Barao and TJ Dillashaw goes down this Saturday night from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. We’ll have one free tip for the event which we’ll detail here as well as 3 or 4 tips that will only be available to those who sign up at CapperTek. In terms of our recent results, our most recent week was not as strong as June or the start of July, but all things considered, with a 15% ROI in 2015, we are still at the top of the MMA handicapper pile and for just $9.95, you can get 7 days of our bets!

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UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne Full Predictions and Bets

We’re less than 24 hours away from UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne which will be live from the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida tomorrow night, Saturday, April 19. The fight card begins on Fight Pass at 3:30 pm ET on Fight Pass with the televised prelims at 5pm ET on Fox Sports 1 and Sportsnet 360 and the main prelims live at 8pm ET on Fox and Sportsnet 360. Since it’s Easter weekend, the family stuff has been taking much of our time and our write ups will be relatively brief, but our early predictions and bets had more detailed break downs and they were posted last night. In this post, we’ll just be going over a couple of our parlay bets for this solid UFC on Fox card. We’ll be looking to cap off a huge week where we went 5-0 for +14.97 units at the TUF Nations Finale on Wednesday night. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.

First up, we see Miesha Tate defeating Liz Carmouche in the co-main event women’s bantamweight contest. Two of Tate’s recent losses have come to the champ, Ronda Rousey and the other one was a third round TKO loss to Cat Zingano in a fight she probably had on the score cards. Carmouche seems to lose to all the top women as she was unable to defeat Marloes Coenen, Sarah Kaufman, Ronda Rousey and Alexis Davis, all within the past 3 years and we don’t expect her to be able to turn the tide against Miesha Tate. Parlayed with Tate will be Jordan Mein who will be introducing Hernani Perpetuo to UFC competition. The UFC vet Mein should have no problem disposing of the newcomer, Perpetuo which is why we decided to add him to this parlay. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Tate and Mein at 1.85.

Our last bet of the card will be another parlay where we see a couple pretty likely outcomes. Firstly, Dustin Ortiz welcomes Ray Borg to the UFC after a close split decision loss to former number 1 contender John Moraga. Ortiz should be a serious step up for Borg while Borg will be a serious step down for Ortiz, so we expect Ortiz to have no problems tomorrow night. Parlayed with Ortiz will be UFC newcomer Derrick Lewis. Lewis is another guy we expect to have a relatively easy path to victory on Saturday night. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Ortiz and Lewis at 1.92.

That’s it for our UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne picks! We’ll be back early next week with our full UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira predictions and bets.

Bets

Werdum over Browne. 3 units at 2.40
Cerrone over Barboza. 3 units at 2.00
Tavares/Magalhaes Parlay. 3 units at 2.34
Tate/Mein Parlay. 3 units at 1.85
Lewis/Ortiz Parlay. 3 units at 1.92

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann Full Predictions and Bets

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann is just a few days away, but as a fan of the sport of MMA, the card is not bringing out a lot of excitement. As MMA handicappers though, this card looks awesome, with some very attractive spots to lay down some money. We already posted two picks not previously mentioned in our early predictions and bets post on our Twitter. The last UFC event, UFC Fight Night 36, saw us go 2-2 on our bets for a small loss of 1.36 units. Over our last 6 events (as recorded in our Track Record), we have profited 30.56 units for a return of over 60%. The scheduled for this card is pretty standard now for UFC pay-per-views. Fight Pass prelims at 7pm ET, Fox Sports 1/Sportsnet 360 prelims at 8pm ET and the main card on PPV at 10pm ET. If you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is packed with ridiculous amounts of MMA stats and is just $10 or so if you buy the Kindle version on Amazon.

We’ll start off with a play we like that includes the main event. As we said in our early predictions and bets post, we don’t like a straight play on Rousey, but we did like the idea of including her in a parlay should a decent second leg arise. Well, we think we found that decent second leg in Alexis Davis. A parlay on the two currently pays 2.03 to 1. Why do we like Alexis Davis to defeat Jessica Eye? At the age of 29, Davis already holds wins over many of the big names in women’s MMA. Names like Liz Carmouche, Rosi Sexton, Shayna Baszler and Julie Kedzie. She is curently riding a 4 fight win streak, including taking victories in her first two UFC contests. Eye on the other hand, has not defeated the calibre of opposition of Davis. Her only UFC win did come against the then #2 ranked UFC women’s bantamweight, but it was obvious that she was undersized and the split decision victory was a pretty controversial one at the time (we have to note that the victory was subsequently changed to a no contest because Eye tested positive for marijuana). Prior to her first UFC fight, she had won 7 straight, but none of those fights were against particularly good competition. Another factor going against Eye in this fight is the big reach advantage possessed by Davis. Eye’s reach has been kind of hard to nail down, but it’s somewhere between 63.5″ and 67″ depending on your source. Davis’s reach is longer at 68″. With only 1 and 2 UFC fights under their belt, the Fightmetric statistics for this fight don’t give us very much insight, so we avoided using them in our analysis of this match-up. As a result of her experience, reach advantage, quality of opponents defeated and overall MMA game, we parlayed Rousey and Davis; 2 units at 2.03 to 1.

Our next bet is another fight on the main card as we have TJ Waldburger to defeat Mike Pyle. At the time we Tweeted out this play, the odds were at 2.92 to 1. It seems like we managed to hit this bet when the odds reached their peak as the odds have since fallen to 2.67 to 1. Our model favours Waldburger slightly to taste victory on Saturday night. In addition, the first few stats we tend to look at when deciding whether to bet on an underdog all lined up. Mike Pyle is getting pretty old for competing in MMA at 38 years old while Waldburger is entering the prime of his career at 25. In addition, Waldburger has a 1 inch reach advantage. Finally (and you would think of this had you read Fightnomics), Waldburger has had 2 months less of a layoff than Pyle, thus the effect of ring rust on Waldburger is likely slightly less. In addition to these three major factors, Pyle has lost 4 fights via TKO and 4 fights via submission. The beauty of this when betting on his opponent, is that he is fighting a guy who has 13 of his 16 victories by submission. The chances of Waldburger being able to lock up a submission at some point in their 15 minute battle are pretty good. It is likely that Waldburger holds the overall grappling advantage. The major threat to this bet is if Waldburger, who doesn’t have a very good chin (he’s been KO’d or TKO’d 6 times in 24 fights), gets knocked out in short order. While very possible, at 2.92 to 1, we feel there’s still a lot of value in the younger, longer fighter. As tweeted out, we placed a 2 unit bet on Waldburger at 2.92 to 1. (If you are just looking to bet this fight now, we still see a lot of value as long as the line stays above 2.50 to 1)

In another play we initially Tweeted out, we have Robert Whittaker to defeat Stephen Thompson. Like the previous fight, Whittaker is the much younger fighter at 23 years old, while Thompson is 31. As with most of our bets, Whittaker is favoured to win by our model. In both TUF: The Smashes which he won and his 2 UFC victories, Whittaker has looked very impressive overall. His lone UFC defeat came to Court McGee via split decision, in a fight that one judge scored 30-27 for Whittaker. For Thompson, Saturday night will mark his fifth appearance in the octagon and he sits at 4-1. Both fighters will be facing a step up in competition when they fight each other which always adds some uncertainty to the outcome. As tweeted, we placed a 3 unit bet on Whittaker at 2.11 to 1.

Our final play of the night will be a second parlay. Firstly, we think its kind of crazy that Raphael Assuncao only sits around 1.50 to 1 to defeat promotional newcomer Pedro Munhoz. Sure, Munhoz defeated Billy Daniels (who was 7-0 at the time) with a quick guillotine choke and he has defeated opponents who are a lot better opponents than most fighters on the regional scene have. Facing the #3 ranked UFC bantamweight in his UFC debut however, seems a little crazy and there is no way in our opinion that Assuncao should be close to 1.50 to 1. He should be somewhere around 1.25 to 1. Parlayed with Assuncao is Alijamin Sterling. Sterling opened close to 1.33 to 1, but has since climbed to 1.42 to 1. Alijamin’s latest win came against Joel Roberts [VIDEO]. The announcers incorrectly state Sterling was dropped, but in reality he slipped and was knocked over by Roberts. His athletic ability was on full display in that fight. In the video we have on Gibson, it looks like he had difficulty defending the takedowns against the 14-8 Chad George as well as being stuck in a close submission for a period of time [VIDEO]. In Gibson’s fight prior to that, he was impressive in defeating the 5-3 Darin Cooley [VIDEO]. We expect Sterling to be able to dispose of Gibson, using his athletic ability and divison 3 wrestling credentials to take down and submit Gibson. We placed a 2 unit parlay bet on Assuncao and Sterling at 2.09 to 1.

Finally, we’re throwing 1.5 units on the Cormier/Cummins fight to be under 1.5 rounds. We expect Cormier to absolutely outclass his much less experienced opponent and be able to finish him within 7 and a half minutes. We definitely see that happening better than 50% of the time which gives us significantly positive EV when we placed our 1.5 units on Cormier/Cummins to be under 1.5 rounds at 2.25 to 1.

That’s it for our bets for this event, we will be back next week to provide you our full predictions and bets for the TUF China Finale. If you haven’t picked up Fightnomics, it’s a must read for anyone planning to bet on MMA.

Bets

Under 1.5 Rounds Rousey/McMann. 1.5 units at 2.40 to 1
Under 1.5 Rounds Cormier/Cummins. 1.5 units at 2.25 to 1
Rousey, Davis Parlay. 2 units at 2.03 to 1
Waldburger over Pyle. 2 units at 2.92 to 1
Whittaker over Thompson. 3 units at 2.11 to 1
Assuncao, Sterling parlay. 2 units at 2.09 to 1