UFC Fight Night 92: Rodriguez vs Caceres Free Betting Tip


UFC Fight Night 92: Rodriguez vs Caceres goes down this Saturday night from Salt Lake City, Utah and features a couple match-ups with top 15 featherweights and a top 15 middleweight. To be honest, the overall card is pretty weak; even the top 15 guys aren’t likely to challenge for a title without at least 2 big wins. Regardless, from a betting perspective there are a couple bets we like already with about half the lines released for the event. One is a 4 unit play we released earlier today to Cappertek. The other we’ll be bringing you for free in this post. In terms of our recent betting results, we ended up with a 3 unit profit in July after a weak start was followed up by 3 straight profits and the month finished with a slight loss at UFC 201. Overall, we’re still up 10 or so units on the year and we’ll be looking to make a whole lot more in the second half!

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UFC on FOX 15: Machida vs Rockhold Free Betting Tip

UFC on FOX 15: Machida vs Rockhold goes down this Saturday from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. An unfortunate injury to Yoel Romero means the co-main event that was previously between him and Jacare Souza is now Souza and Camozzi in a rematch that noone really wanted to see happen. For The Fight Predictor we’ll be looking to bounce back after a pretty bad weekend at last weekend’s UFC Fight Night 64: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop II. Besides that, the year has been pretty awesome with winning months in January, February and March. This weekend’s UFC on FOX 15 and UFC 186 mean we have plenty of opportunity to get back to at least break even on the month of April. Speaking of this weekend, we have already released 2 bets for the card which are only available on our Cappertek profile. There are also 2 ways to get 30 days of our tips for free. You can follow these steps or you can win this contest.

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UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold Early Picks and Bets

UFC on FX 8 featuring Vitor Belfort vs Luke Rockhold will be live on Saturday, May 18, 2013 from Brazil. The main card begins at 9pm ET on FX, with the Fuel TV prelims beginning at 6pm ET and the Facebook prelims beginning at 4:30 pm ET. Like many recent card, this fight card features some Strikeforce crossovers headlining including “Jacare” Souza and the aformentioned Rockhold in the co-main and main event respectively. We will predict both those fights in this article along with the lightweight battle between Rafael Dos Anjos and Evan Dunham. This fight card marks the debut of our new model!

In the main event, the last Strikeforce middleweight champ, Luke Rockhold, takes on the number 2 ranked middleweight in the UFC, Vitor Belfort. Both fighters have led impressive careers and have had a lot of success lately. Belfort is 8-2 in his last 10, with 6 knockouts and his only two losses coming to light heavyweight champ, Jon Jones and middleweight champ, Anderson Silva. Rockhold, on the other hand is 9-1 in his last 10 (he only has 11 career fights) and has 5 submissions and 2 knockouts over that time period, albeit against a lower level of competition than that of Belfort. From a statistical perspective, Rockhold has a 3 inch advantage in both height and reach respectively, standing 6’3″ tall. The striking stats say Rockhold throws a lot more punches, with slightly less accuracy, but also absorbs far fewer punches. Surprisingly, Belfort, who has finished 15 of his 22 victories via knockout, attempts more takedowns at 1.29 per fight than Rockhold, at 0.21 per fight. On the other hand, Rockhold is able to stop 70% of the takedowns attempted against him while Belfort stops just 50%. An element in all the stats however, is that many of Belfort’s fights end early, while his fight vs Jones went 4 rounds so that fight would have a negative affect on his fight statistics. Our model has Rockhold winning by a large margin. Therefore, we placed a 1.5 unit bet on Rockhold at 1.87 to 1.

Prior to the main event, in the co-main event, we will see Chris Camozzi fight Ronaldo “Jacara” Souza, with both fighters having just 5 weeks to prepare following the injury that forced Costa Philippou out of the match-up with Souza. Over his 10 year career, “Jacara” has been one of the top middleweights outside the UFC and many MMA fans have dreamed of seeing him have the opportunity to test himself against the best fighters in the world. Besides losses to main eventer, Luke Rockhold and other top Strikeforce middleweight, Gegard Mousasi, Ronaldo Souza has been undefeated over the last 5 years fighting the best competition outside the UFC. Affectionately known as the alligator, once Souza gets ahold of a limb, he doesn’t let go. This is evidenced by his 13 career submission victories. Camozzi, on the other hand, has won 4 straight in the UFC. He has finished 11 of 17 and is relatively well rounded with 6 wins via submission and 5 via knockout. In terms of fight stats, Camozzi has a small height and reach advantage. Camozzi throws a lot more strikes than Souza, 4.03 vs 2.16, and both land with a similar 40% accuracy. The critical distinction however, is Souza’s 3.91 takedowns per 15 minute fight vs Camozzi, who has never landed a takedown in his UFC career. It is a good possibility that Jacare lands a takedown and is able to hold Camozzi down. Our model however, only has “Jacare” as a slight favourite. We like the odds on Camozzi, so we placed a 0.5 unit bet on Camozzi at 5.65 to 1.

Wrapping up the odds that have been released so far is a fight between Rafael Dos Anjos and Evan Dunham. Our model has historically been least accurate at predicting lightweight fights. Therefore, even though we have Dos Anjos as a slight favourite, at 1.55 to 1, we have decided not to place a bet.


Rockhold over Belfort. 1.5 units at 1.87 to 1
Camozzi over Souza. 0.5 unit bet at 5.65 to 1

Other Picks

Dos Anjos over Dunham.

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