UFC Fight Night 79: Henderson vs Masvidal Betting Results

It was an awesome way to start a Saturday morning as we managed a 14.50 unit profit and went 6-2 on our bets at UFC Fight Night 79: Henderson vs Masvidal which was live from Seoul, South Korea beginning at 5 AM ET. This more than makes up for the two straight losses we had at UFC 193 and UFC Fight Night 78 and keeps us on track for a massive year of profit! Congrats to all those who were able to tail the bets and we hope to bring you even more profit in the 3 events in early December!

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UFC Fight Night 60: Henderson vs Thatch Free Betting Tip

We’re exactly a week away from UFC Fight Night 60: Henderson vs Thatch and we have already released our first paid betting tip at CapperTek. For just $9.95, you can get access to our betting tips for 7 days which will get you all our betting tips for UFC Fight Night 60 and likely our early betting tips for UFC Fight Night 61 which is 2 weeks away. Obviously, the more time you buy access for, the better the price per pick you will receive. We’ll be looking to continue our early success this year where we profited 6.91 units for a return of 15.02% in January. This post will add a 3 unit bet on a 3-team parlay we are pretty confident should cash next Saturday. The pick we released on CapperTek was a rare 4 unit underdog bet which we are also very confident in. Remember, you can also get all our picks free for 30 days by signing up and depositing at Draft Kings and following the steps listed here.

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UFC Fight Night 37: Gustafsson vs Manuwa Full Predictions and Bets

We’re now just 2 days away from UFC Fight Night 37: Gustafsson vs Manuwa. If you didn’t get a chance to see it, our early predictions and bets were posted earlier this week and we’re here to bring you the remaining bets for this relatively decent Fight Pass fight card. Our model plays were both given out with our early picks, but we still have a couple parlay bets we think pay off well enough to justify laying down some money. The action begins at 12:30 pm ET this Saturday, March 8 from the O2 Arena in London, England. We will be looking to build on our huge profit over the last 9 events which is detailed in our track record. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.

Firstly, as we said in our early predictions, we see value in the light heavyweight main event where Alexander Gustafsson takes on Jimi Manuwa. The huge step up in competition and the skill level of Gustafsson will overwhelm Manuwa. We would parlay Brad Pickett to defeat the debuting Neil Seery with Gustafsson, but the issue is he has dropped to 1.13 and the value just isn’t there. Instead we will add 2 other favourites to this parlay. Firstly, we added the undefeated Gunnar Nelson to defeat Omari Akhmedov. Akhmedov looked terrible in his UFC debut where he fought Thiago Perpetuo. Akhmedov was absolutely dominated for about the first 3 minutes of the fight. Unfortunately for Perpetuo though, the next 30 seconds were awful for him as Akhmedov knocked him out. Nelson should be able to take advantage with his more technical striking and we see him either controlling the action on the feet or utilizing his grappling to win a decision. The other leg we added to this parlay was the gigantic Luke Barnatt to defeat Mats Nilsson. Barnatt looked incredible in winning via submission over Andrew Craig. With the way he was using his reach in that fight, there aren’t many middleweights who will be able to take him out. Fighting Barnatt will be a huge step up for the debuting Nilsson and we have little reason to believe he’ll be able to get the job done. Our bet is Gustafsson, Nelson and Barnatt in a parlay for 3 units at 2.18.

Our second parlay for the event features Brad Scott and Igor Araujo to win their fights. Scott takes on the debuting Cláudio Henrique da Silva who is another Brazilian guy (this seems pretty common) with a solid record of 9-1 with no notable opponents defeated. Not only is da Silva debuting and facing an opponent much better than any he has ever faced, but he hasn’t fought since October 26, 2012 which is a scary amount of time away from the cage for a non-UFC fighter and it makes you question his motivation to fight. In addition, da Silva is 31 years old while Scott is just 24 so in addition to the other factors mentioned, Scott has a decent age advantage as well. At over 1.50, the value on that fight clearly lies on Scott. Igor Araujo will be fighting for the second time in the UFC after debuting with a win over Ildemar Alcantara. His overall record currently sits at 24-6 and he is riding a 5 fight win streak. His opponent Danny Mitchell enters the fight on a 2 fight win streak and with a 14-4 overall record. The caliber of opponent fought by Mitchell is just atrocious. In his fight to get him to 13-4 he fought Victor Peixeito, a fighter whose record sits at 0-7. He lost to the 19-13 former UFC fighter Kendall Grove back in June, 2013. Araujo’s opponents haven’t been that much better, but his only loss in the last 5 years comes to another relative newcomer to the UFC, the 16-1 Rashid Magomedov. Araujo should easily handle Mitchell in this fight which is why we added him to our parlay. The bet is 3 units on Scott and Araujo at 2.47.

One over/under bet we like is Davey Grant and Roland Delorme to fight for less than 2.5 rounds. The bet currently pays 2.45 and is well worth it in our opinion as Grant has never had a fight go over 2:30 into the third round which is the threshold for getting paid on this one. The main threat to this bet is Delorme grappling Grant to a decision, but we think the possibility of this fight going under 2.5 rounds is at worst 50% and at the current line that means there is significant value in placing a bet. We bet 1.5 units at 2.45 on Grant/Delorme to be under 2.5 rounds.

Next up for us is UFC 171: Lawler vs Hendricks which features a couple huge welterweight fights including Robbie Lawler vs Johny Hendricks for the vacant title and Tyron Woodley vs Carlos Condit which will likely determine the first number one contender to whoever wins the title fight. Our early predictions and bets were posted recently so stay tuned for at least one and maybe two more posts featuring the best bets for the event! By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.

Bets

Gustafsson/Nelson/Barnatt Parlay. 3 units at 2.18
Johnson over Guillard. 3 units at 1.87
Scott/Araujo Parlay. 3 units at 2.47
Under 1.5 Rounds Grant/Delorme. 1.5 units at 2.45
Harris over Gaudinot. 3 units at 2.65

UFC Fight Night 37: Gustafsson vs Manuwa Early Predictions and Bets

UFC Fight Night 37 is just a few days away and we’re here to bring you our model predictions as well as our bets for this relatively decent Fight Night card. We will be looking to continue our huge run of late where we are up 39.25 units over the last 9 events. Our betting history is all documented in our betting track record. The main event features Alexander Gustafsson’s return to action after coming so close to winning the light heavyweight title in his epic battle with Jon Jones at UFC 165. His opponent, Jimi Manuwa is likely outclassed in the match-up, but we’ll have more info on that below. The fight card is only available on UFC Fight Pass and kicks off at 12:30 pm ET. The main card begins at 3:30 pm ET, but like we’ve said before, the distinction is really just semantics. The odd start time is brought to you by the UFC’s global expansion efforts as this card comes to us from the O2 Arena in London, England. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.

The main event for this event will feature Alexander Gustafsson and Jimi Manuwa in what will likely be a light heavyweight title eliminator, at least if Gustafsson takes the victory. If Manuwa wins, he could get the title shot, but in our opinion the likelihood of Manuwa being able to defeat Gustafsson is remote at best. Firstly, our model has Gustafsson as the huge favourite to win. On top of that, Jimi Manuwa has yet to really face any tough competition in the UFC. He fought and beat Kyle Kingsbury, Cyrille Diabate and Ryan Jimmo, but all three of those guys are middle class UFC light heavyweights at best and none are anywhere near the level of Gustafsson. One of Gustafsson’s most effective weapons tends to be his reach. Division champ, Jon Jones is lauded for being great at using his reach and Gustafsson using a similar style only lost a debatable split decision to Jones. Against Manuwa, Gustafsson may or may not have the reach advantage. Manuwa’s reach is somewhere between 75.5″ and 79.5″ (yes both have been official measurements), and Gustafsson’s reach is around 81″ depending on your source. The thing about Manuwa though is he doesn’t utilize his reach nearly as well as he could. We don’t see him being able to take Gustafsson down either as Gustafsson has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC and Manuwa’s takedowns are average at best. We expect the fight stays on the feet and Gustafsson likely gets it done inside the distance with his striking, especially considering this one is a 5 round fight. For now, we will hold off on placing a bet, but either a straight play on Gustafsson or a play on Gustafsson inside the distance could make its way into a parlay later in the week.

In the co-main event, hard hitting lightweights Melvin Guillard and Michael Johnson will collide. Guillard enters the bout 2-4-1 in his last 7, with an unfortunate draw against Ross Pearson in his most recent fight, also from England, where he looked to be well on his way to a TKO victory. Over the same number of previous fights, Johnson sits at a much better looking 5-2. In terms of level of competition faced, there is not an obvious caliber difference. The difference is that Johnson was able to pull off 5 wins while Guillard only earned 2 (arguably 3). In terms of the stats, Johnson stands 2 inches taller at 5’11” and has a 3 inch reach advantage over Guillard. Not particularly significant on their own, but when combined with the fact that Johnson is 3 years younger, it starts to look like the scale is tipped in Johnson’s favour. Johnson also stands southpaw which always throws a wrench into the striking game. In terms of the in fight stats, Johnson lands slightly more strikes, 3.53 per minute to 3.24 per minute for Guillard. Johnson also absorbs more strikes, 2.77 to Guillard’s 1.67. While unlikely to go to the ground in our opinion, Guillard lands more takedowns per fight, 1.60 to Johnson’s 0.56. Guillard is also more accurate with his takedowns, being successful on 70% of his attempts while Johnson is successful on 57%. In terms of takedown defense though, the tables turn with Johnson defending a very high 77% of takedowns against and Guillard defending 65%. Our model confidently picks Johnson to take the victory and at current odds, placing a bet makes a lot of sense. We bet 3 units on Johnson at 1.87 as we first Tweeted out earlier today.

In our final model pick of the night, we have Phil Harris to win his flyweight contest with Louis Gaudinot. The first thing that jumps out about Gaudinot is the insane number of strikes he absorbs in his fights. On average according to FightMetric, Gaudinot aborbs 7.97 significant strikes per minute. Even in his lone UFC win over John Lineker he was getting absolutely picked apart on the feet before Lineker tired and he was able to get the takedown. Harris is also 1-2 in his UFC fights, but has defended an incredible 73% of strikes attempted against for a total absorbtion rate of 2.76 per minute. Still high, but much better than Gaudinot’s number. Gaudinot has also shown brutal takedown defense at just 17%, getting taken down 4 times by Johnny Bedford and 6 times by Tim Elliot in his most recent outing. He also lands 50% of his takedowns which is pretty decent, but still bettered by his opponent. Phil Harris has defended 100% of takedowns attempted against and has landed 75% of his own takedowns. He has a 1 inch reach advantage in this match-up, but is also 1 year older; both of which are likely to insignificant to have an effect. The final thing we see as an important factor in this match-up is Gaudinot’s inactivity. His last fight was 6 months ago, but prior to that fight he only fought in May, 2012, almost 2 years ago. Harris’s last fight was 4 months ago and he has had 3 fights in the same span. Taking all this into consideration, we think the line on Harris is kind of crazy and it’s well worth a bet. We placed a 3 unit bet on Harris at 2.65 to 1 as Tweeted out earlier today. Unfortunately, since then the line has fallen slightly to 2.50, but we think as long as it stays above the 2.30 range, it hold significant value.

We’ll be back later in the week, likely with some parlays and maybe some prop picks should the odds line up. In the mean time, go ahead and pick up a copy of Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics which covers tons of stats information as it relates to MMA, but don’t worry, you won’t need a masters degree to understand.

Bets

Johnson over Guillard. 3 units at 1.87 to 1
Harris over Gaudinot. 3 units at 2.65 to 1

UFC Fight Night 36: Machida vs Mousasi Results and Betting Recap

UFC Fight Night 36: Machida vs Mousasi went down tonight from Jaragua, Brazil. Unfortunately for us, we had a small loss on the night. Overall, we went 2-2 on our bets for a total loss of 1.36 units. When combined with our results over the last 5 events though, we’re still up over 30 units overall and we’ve won 18 of our 27 bets. We’ll readjust and come back strong for UFC 170. Hopefully our full picks will be up early next week assuming the full betting lines are relased.

Our final bet of the night was Lyoto Machida to defeat Gegard Mousasi inside the distance. The bet was 1.5 units at 2.90 to 1. The first round was a typical Machida round as he sat back and feinted for the most part, but landed strikes whenever he chose and took very little damage. The second round saw Mousasi charging in and landing some combos, but Machida also landed a nice head kick and multiple damaging strikes. Machida controlled the third round similar to the first, landing a bunch of damaging strikes while Mousasi landed very little. The fourth round saw Machida get a takedown and remain on top for much of the round. Mousasi did hit a switch at one point, but it still looked to be a round that went to Machida. The fifth round saw Machida get the better of the striking as well as landing a trip which allowed him to transition to back control and remain there for the final few minutes. Unfortunately, the dominant performance by Machida still had us losing our 1.5 unit ITD bet.

Our lone parlay of the night was Silva, Souza and Machida to win. The bet was 2 units at 1.91 to 1. The first leg was easy (as expected) with Silva disposing of Sato in the first minute of round 1. Leg 2 of the parlay was Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza to defeat Francis Carmont. Round 1 was all Souza as he was able to lock up a body triangle and hold Carmont there for the majority of the round. We also gave round 2 to Souza, but it was much closer than round 1 with most of the round on the feet. Round 3 was similar to round 1 with Souza spending much of the round glued to Carmont’s back. Jacare took the fight 29-28×2, 30-27. Machida’s win completed this parlay on which we profit 1.82 units.

Our second bet of the night was Viscardi Andrade to defeat Nicholas Musoke. The bet was 3 units on Andrade at 1.82 to 1. At first, the bet looked great, Andrade scored a knock down early in the first and celebrated prematurely. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the fight saw Musoke on top and in control. The judges got it right as they all scored the fight 29-28 for Musoke. We lose 3 units.

Our first bet of the night was on Maximo Blanco and Felipe Arantes to fight for longer than 12:30 (2.5 rounds). The bet was 2 units at 1.66 to 1. It was a scary fight to have bet the over in. The first round saw some crazy back and forth striking action including Arantes dropping Blanco close to the end of the round and almost getting a finish. Round 2 saw far fewer strikes and no really dangerous situations. It was obvious both guys were beginning to tire, but Blanco likely took the round as he spent a decent amount of time in top position and held his own in the stand up. The pace of the fight stayed constant for the third, at least until Blanco landed a heavy groin kick which was worrying because Arantes stayed down for a long time. Following the restart, Blanco started fighting like crazy for the finish, but the clock still chugged past 2:30 and our bet paid. Arantes took the victory with all judges scoring it 29-27 and we profit 1.32 units on our 2 unit bet.

BETTING RESULTS

Good Bets:
Silva, Souza, Machida parlay. 2 units at 1.91 to 1 (+1.82 units)
Over 2.5 rounds – Blanco vs Arantes. 2 units at 1.66 to 1 (+1.32 units)

Lost Bets:
Machida inside the distance. 1.5 units (-1.50 units)
Andrade over Musoke. 3 units (-3.00 units)

Event Record: 2-2
Event Loss: 1.36 units

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics and to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Main Card Results

Machida over Mousasi via unanimous decision
Souza over Carmont via unanimous decision
Silva over Sato via first round KO
Musoke over Andrade via unanimous decision
Oliveira over Ogle via third round submission (triangle choke)

Preliminary Card Results

Proctor over Marcello via unanimous decision
Damm over Jorge via unanimous decision
Trinaldo over Ronson via split decision
Alcantara over Reis via split decision
Arantes over Blanco via unanimous decision
Alcantara over Tumenov via split decision
Tukhugov over De Andrade via unanimous decision