UFC 166 is now under a week away. We have been treated to UFC Prime Time: Velasquez vs Dos Santos III parts 1 and 2. We released our early picks and we’re back now with our full predictions and bets for the event. Since releasing our bets we added a bet on Cormier vs Nelson to be under 1.5 rounds at the ridiculously high line of 3.4 to 1. The fight card takes place this Saturday, October 19 from the Toyota Centre in Houston, Texas with the main card starting at 10pm ET only on Pay-Per-View and the Fox Sports 1 prelims beginning at 8pm ET and the Facebook prelims beginning at 6pm ET.
First off, we should update you on the Roy Nelson camp situation. Apparently he had the worst camp he has ever had for a fight, losing his boxing coach early on and being distracted by his salary negotiations. As we said in our main card predictions, we have Cormier as the huge favourite and Nelson’s struggles with camp only bolsters this. As such, we are adding a 1 unit bet on the fight being under 1.5 rounds at 3.4 to 1 (we see playing Cormier as a suckers bet as he sits below 1.2 to 1).
We begin our preliminary card predictions with a middleweight fight between C.B. Dollaway and Tim Boetsch. Both men enter the fight 2-2 in their last 4, but riding opposite streaks as Boetsch has lost 2 in a row and Dollaway has won 2 in a row. Boetsch has been in or close to being in the top 10 UFC middleweights since the inception of the rankings, while Dollaway is looking for a big win to project himself into top 10 contention. Dollaway is a solid wrestler with division 1 NCAA credentials and will likely look to employ the game plan laid out by Mark Munoz to beat Boetsch. Our model has Dollaway as a slight favourite to take the victory Saturday night. As he is a decent underdog at around 2.6 to 1, we placed a 2 unit bet on Dollaway to earn the victory.
Next up, in the welterweight division, our model has Hector Lombard as a marginal favourite to defeat Nate Marquardt. Besides his KO victory over Rousimar Palhares, Lombard has looked relatively weak since joining the UFC. This fight will mark Lombard’s welterweight debut and it will be interesting to see how he looks physically at the weigh ins. Marquardt comes into the fight with 2 straight losses to Tarec Saffiedine and Jake Ellenberger. At the current line on Lombard of 1.58 to 1, we don’t see any value in betting on him. In addition, with the uncertainty of Lombard coming in at welterweight, a bet on Marquardt at 2.55 to 1 may not be the worst decision. We will hold off on a Marquardt bet, but if Lombard comes into the weigh in looking weak and dehydrated, it is definitely a bet we will consider.
In the lightweight division, George Sotiropoulos and KJ Noons will do battle in the first bout of the prelims. We were surprised when the odds came out that the oddsmakers had Noons as a decent favourite. Noons comes into the fight at 1-5 in his last 6. Over that span, he has been taken down an incredible 17 times. Not great numbers, especially considering he was fighting in Strikeforce and not taking on the best talent available. Sotiropoulos comes into the fight on a 3 fight losing streak. The one very intriguing stat however, is that Sotiropoulos was also unable to land any takedowns in those 3 fights he lost. Facing a very takedownable (is that a word?) opponent should be just the rememedy Sotiropoulos needs to end his 3 fight skid. Therefore, we placed a 2 unit bet on Sotiropoulos 2.6 to 1.
In our final pick of the night, like most people, our model has Adlan Amagov to defeat TJ Waldburger. Incredibly, at the age of just 25, Waldburger has already lost 5 fights via TKO. We see the possibility of Amagov increasing that total as a likely possibility. While we don’t like the current line on Amagov to win at 1.64 to 1, we do like the under 1.5 rounds which sits at 2.85 to 1. We placed a 1 unit bet at 2.85 to 1.
Velasquez to finish Dos Santos. 1 unit at 2.35 to 1
Under 1.5 Nelson vs Cormier. 1 unit at 3.4 to 1
Dollaway over Boetsch. 2 units at 2.6 to 1
Sotiropoulos over Noons. 2 units at 2.6 to 1
Under 1.5 Amagov vs Waldbuger. 1 unit at 2.85 to 1
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Here are the best UFC 166 odds: