UFC on FOX 15: Machida vs Rockhold Free Betting Tip

UFC on FOX 15: Machida vs Rockhold goes down this Saturday from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. An unfortunate injury to Yoel Romero means the co-main event that was previously between him and Jacare Souza is now Souza and Camozzi in a rematch that noone really wanted to see happen. For The Fight Predictor we’ll be looking to bounce back after a pretty bad weekend at last weekend’s UFC Fight Night 64: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop II. Besides that, the year has been pretty awesome with winning months in January, February and March. This weekend’s UFC on FOX 15 and UFC 186 mean we have plenty of opportunity to get back to at least break even on the month of April. Speaking of this weekend, we have already released 2 bets for the card which are only available on our Cappertek profile. There are also 2 ways to get 30 days of our tips for free. You can follow these steps or you can win this contest.

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UFC Fight Night 50: Souza vs Mousasi Results and Betting Recap

Any profit is a success, but a couple close calls could have lead to a huge night. Alas, we won’t complain as a profit is a profit. The profit kicks off September on a winning note and with 3 cards remaining on the month, there’s still time to make a bunch more money.

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UFC Fight Night 50: Souza vs Mousasi Early Predictions and Bets

This Friday’s UFC Fight Night 50: Jacare vs Mousasi II is a really stacked card, especially for a free TV event. We’ll be looking to get back to profitable after a small loss at UFC 177, but luckily we have tons of cards in September and early October to make some money on. In terms of our overall performance, we are up a total of 60.55 units for an average ROI of 15.51%. We have made money on 7 of the last 9 months and 3 of the last 4 events. All this is detailed in our betting tips track record. Make a point to take a look through the book, Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball which is a great read for any sports bettor; you may even pick up some tips for your own betting.

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UFC Fight Night 36: Machida vs Mousasi Main Card Predictions and Bets

For a UFC Fight Night Card, UFC Fight Night 36 has a surprisingly solid main and co-main event. As we alluded to in our end of 2014 champion predictions post, the middleweight division is probably the most stacked UFC division currently and will be one to keep an eye on throughout the year. All four of the middleweights fighting in the main and co-main events could be champion by the end of 2014 should they win a few critical fights. The drop off from co-main event to the rest of the card is relatively heavy though, as should be expected since this is only a fight night card. Regardless, we are here to bring you our predictions and bets for the card! If you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is packed with ridiculous amounts of MMA stats and is just $10 or so if you buy the Kindle version on Amazon.

In the main event, Lyoto Machida and Gegard Mousasi will collide with the winner potentially being next in line to face the champ, Chris Weidman. Machida looked impressive in his middleweight debut, but it is hard to guage how good he really will be from the first round knockout of Mark Munoz. The Fight Metric stats only have Machida throwing 5 strikes total and it almost seemed like Munoz was holding back against Machida. Machida’s style tends to be to sit back and counter punch, so when he is matched up with someone who is unwilling to move forward, it makes for a boring fight. Mousasi comes into the fight riding a 7 fight unbeaten streak, but fighting Machida amounts to a massive jump in competition. While Ovince St Preux is a decent fighter, he is probably the best guy Mousasi beat on his unbeaten streak and he is nowhere near the level of “The Dragon”. Our model has Machida as a big time favourite, but at 1.43 to 1, we felt he better belonged in a parlay than in a straight bet. While we didn’t like the money line on Machida, we did like the prop bet on Machida to win inside the distance. We placed a 1.5 unit bet at 2.90 to 1 on Machida to win inside the distance.

The co-main event features a couple more top middleweights as Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza takes on Francis Carmont. Carmont enters the fight following a dominant performance over Costa Philippou, but the result of that fight was more because Philippou lacks a ground game and good takedown defense than because of Carmont’s skill level. At Fight Night 36, Carmont will be taking on a guy who has made a name for himself with impressive submission grappling throughout his career. Carmont will not be able to hold Souza down for 15 minutes and is likely to have to defend several submission attempts. Souza entered the UFC impressively from Strikeforce with 2 straight first round wins over Chris Camozzi and Yushin Okami. In fact, Souza has just one loss in the last 5 years and that came to Luke Rockhold and was for the Strikeforce middleweight title. Like Machida, our model has Souza as the significant favourite to take the victory. Also like Machida, we don’t feel there is a lot of value in the current money line on Souza which sits at around 1.25 to 1. Instead of the straight bet, we will parlay these two together with a third fighter.

That third fighter is Erick Silva. Silva will be taking on Takenori Sato. Sato boasts an unimpressive 17-8-7 record (draws are more common in Japan with 2 round fights). His recent wins come over the 0-3 Islam Galayev, the 9-7 Shingo Suzuki and the 45-31 Keiichiro Yamamiya. Obviously, Silva, who is 3-3 in his UFC career will be an astronomical step up in competition for Sato. Factor in that Sato will be fighting for the first time in the UFC and that Japanese fighters tend to not cut too much weight and we’re looking at a huge advantage for Silva. The line on Silva opened at 1.083, and has since risen to 1.11. Obviously, you’d have to bet a huge amount to make any money there, so instead we added Silva to our parlay. We placed a 2 unit parlay bet on Silva, Souza and Machida at 1.91 to 1.

That’s all the model picks we have for this card. Viscardi Andrade is a somewhat tempting bet with his quick disposal of Bristol Marunde at UFC 163, but we will hold off on that bet for now to see how the line moves as the fight approaches. Oliveira could make for a great parlay addition (especially with the with a fighter or two from the preliminary card, but again we will bring you that bet in our full predictions and bets post.
Don’t forget to pick up your copy of Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics and to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Bets

Machida over Mousasi inside the distance. 1.5 units at 2.90 to 1
Silva/Souza/Machida. 2 units at 1.91 to 1

UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold Early Picks and Bets

UFC on FX 8 featuring Vitor Belfort vs Luke Rockhold will be live on Saturday, May 18, 2013 from Brazil. The main card begins at 9pm ET on FX, with the Fuel TV prelims beginning at 6pm ET and the Facebook prelims beginning at 4:30 pm ET. Like many recent card, this fight card features some Strikeforce crossovers headlining including “Jacare” Souza and the aformentioned Rockhold in the co-main and main event respectively. We will predict both those fights in this article along with the lightweight battle between Rafael Dos Anjos and Evan Dunham. This fight card marks the debut of our new model!

In the main event, the last Strikeforce middleweight champ, Luke Rockhold, takes on the number 2 ranked middleweight in the UFC, Vitor Belfort. Both fighters have led impressive careers and have had a lot of success lately. Belfort is 8-2 in his last 10, with 6 knockouts and his only two losses coming to light heavyweight champ, Jon Jones and middleweight champ, Anderson Silva. Rockhold, on the other hand is 9-1 in his last 10 (he only has 11 career fights) and has 5 submissions and 2 knockouts over that time period, albeit against a lower level of competition than that of Belfort. From a statistical perspective, Rockhold has a 3 inch advantage in both height and reach respectively, standing 6’3″ tall. The striking stats say Rockhold throws a lot more punches, with slightly less accuracy, but also absorbs far fewer punches. Surprisingly, Belfort, who has finished 15 of his 22 victories via knockout, attempts more takedowns at 1.29 per fight than Rockhold, at 0.21 per fight. On the other hand, Rockhold is able to stop 70% of the takedowns attempted against him while Belfort stops just 50%. An element in all the stats however, is that many of Belfort’s fights end early, while his fight vs Jones went 4 rounds so that fight would have a negative affect on his fight statistics. Our model has Rockhold winning by a large margin. Therefore, we placed a 1.5 unit bet on Rockhold at 1.87 to 1.

Prior to the main event, in the co-main event, we will see Chris Camozzi fight Ronaldo “Jacara” Souza, with both fighters having just 5 weeks to prepare following the injury that forced Costa Philippou out of the match-up with Souza. Over his 10 year career, “Jacara” has been one of the top middleweights outside the UFC and many MMA fans have dreamed of seeing him have the opportunity to test himself against the best fighters in the world. Besides losses to main eventer, Luke Rockhold and other top Strikeforce middleweight, Gegard Mousasi, Ronaldo Souza has been undefeated over the last 5 years fighting the best competition outside the UFC. Affectionately known as the alligator, once Souza gets ahold of a limb, he doesn’t let go. This is evidenced by his 13 career submission victories. Camozzi, on the other hand, has won 4 straight in the UFC. He has finished 11 of 17 and is relatively well rounded with 6 wins via submission and 5 via knockout. In terms of fight stats, Camozzi has a small height and reach advantage. Camozzi throws a lot more strikes than Souza, 4.03 vs 2.16, and both land with a similar 40% accuracy. The critical distinction however, is Souza’s 3.91 takedowns per 15 minute fight vs Camozzi, who has never landed a takedown in his UFC career. It is a good possibility that Jacare lands a takedown and is able to hold Camozzi down. Our model however, only has “Jacare” as a slight favourite. We like the odds on Camozzi, so we placed a 0.5 unit bet on Camozzi at 5.65 to 1.

Wrapping up the odds that have been released so far is a fight between Rafael Dos Anjos and Evan Dunham. Our model has historically been least accurate at predicting lightweight fights. Therefore, even though we have Dos Anjos as a slight favourite, at 1.55 to 1, we have decided not to place a bet.

Bets

Rockhold over Belfort. 1.5 units at 1.87 to 1
Camozzi over Souza. 0.5 unit bet at 5.65 to 1

Other Picks

Dos Anjos over Dunham.

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