How Many People Would it Take to Beat Up a UFC Fighter?

The question has haunted the minds of men for decades – until now.

By tweaking our advanced fight predicting simulator matrix we were able to run a series of trials predicting the hypothetical outcome of a “battle” between a UFC fighter and an average Joe. The following post summarizes our shocking (and disturbing) findings.

DISCLAIMER: The following blog post is intended for comedic purposes only. Our apologies in advance if you are at all offended.

To begin our trials we chose none other than the current light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones to represent the fighters of the UFC.  It goes without saying that Bones would make bones of at least 4 grown men for sport, which begs the question:  Just how many men WOULD it take to beat up the champ?

Jon "Bones" Jones

Jon “Bones” Jones

With the tweaks to our model in place we began our first trial.  Jones vs. a single man.  Pointless although necessary for estimating the power of an individual in later trials.

The Result: After double checking for human error, the model produced a probability suggesting that the chances of one man beating up Jon Jones is negative 75%.  Further analysis by repeating the trial 10,000 times reveals that Jones is more likely to be hit by a live whale falling from a monsoon than losing a fight against a single man.

Knowing this our next trial used 5 men.

The Result: Immediately apparent in the model output is the exponential power of 5 men fighting together as a team.  After executing a statistically significant number of trials however, the results speak for themselves.

In the worst instance of all trials, one man was able to hit Jones square in the jaw with a full powered haymaker punch.  The man’s hand shattered up to his elbow.  Jones was unaffected.

In fact, our threat detection variant monitoring Jones’ hypothetical heart beat indicates that even under attack from 5 men, Jones has yet to feel threatened.

So we double the damage. 10 men. To spice it up (and to be fair), we also add 2 women. Were all for equal rights, and maybe they’ll have an outlying effect in the model.

The Results: At this point Jones appears to feel threatened. Through observing 20,000 trials we are able to conclude that the additional pressure of fighting 12 people causes Jones to turn into an even more efficient killing machine. The 10 men are dead within an average of 2 minutes, a kill rate of which even North Korea would approve. The only plausible explanation for this slaughter is that Jon Jones is in fact the first black Super Saiyan.

A Super Saiyan

A Super Saiyan

As for the women? Initially programmed to kill him, Jones saves them for last. He proceeds to initiate a Spartacus-style threesome orgy impregnating them both IN EVERY TRIAL. The mans seed appears to resemble a genetic combination of Michael Phelps and Kanye West.

Exhibit B

Exhibit B

Trial 3. No more ****ing around.

Included in this trial are 6 stormtroopers, 30 men, Agent Smith, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Miley Cyrus. After running only one trial we decide to end the experiment. It turns out some questions are better left unanswered..

Goodbye, Mr. Anderson.

Goodbye, Mr. Anderson.

Jones definitely feels danger here. Before going Super Saiyan he places a cell phone call to Joe Rogan. Joe appears moments later with two kettle bells shaped liked monkey skulls which he uses to violently dispatch of the Stormtroopers. He appears to enjoy doing this very much.

Well done Joe, well done.

Well done Joe, well done.

While Jones engages in speedy-blurred-combat with Agent Smith, The Rock kills 15 of the 30 men accidentally by performing a spinerama-attack with a squat rack. The other 15 men synchronously lose control of their bowels and flee. Seeing this – and now done with the Stormtroopers – Joe Rogan chases them down screeching like an ape proclaiming he is the alpha male and yelling about hunting his own food.

In an honorable (read: strategic) move, The Rock decides to let Jones and Agent Smith continue battle. He places the squat rack on his back and begins to perform step ups on a pile of bodies while shouting out his reps in an ancient tribal language.

Then, in a truly unexplainable turn of events, the women from the previous trial appear out of nowhere to aid Jones. They simultaneously give birth to two boys who mature faster than Shia Labeouf into formidable young warriors. They instantly engage Agent Smith in combat next to the champ.

Seriously, what happened to Even Steven?

Seriously, what happened to Even Steven?

Upon seeing his boys grown into healthy young warriors Jones proceeds to end the battle against Agent Smith the one and only way possible: They must both die. He lowers his guard and Agent Smith punches him straight in the heart. Jones feels the cold envelope him as the agent proceeds to consume him in grey virtual ooze. As the transformation completes both men burst into a sonic explosion of light and sound.

Although physically gone, we can sense that Jones has become more powerful than ever before. Joe Rogan has returned and can be heard muttering something about a waste of meat.

Seeing no point in fighting, The Rock and the Jones Jr’s shake hands. The Jones Jr’s claim to be big fans and demand a picture with their hero. He obliges ever so kindly and immediately posts the picture to his Instagram page applying bad-ass custom filters. He also hashtags. #ImTheRock #ImTHESHIT #theseniggasCRAZY #WTFjusthappen?

Wrapping up, The Jones Jr’s politely decline an invitation from Joe Rogan to appear on his podcast citing an unexplainable sense of destiny to seek out a place they only know to be called the Dagobah System.

After all is said and done the only one remaining on the battle field is Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. Lowering himself to the ground he begins performing a ritual for the dead ensuring their safe passage into the afterlife. Halfway through the ritual he is interrupted by the sound of a goat. He looks over to see Miley Cyrus twerking. Apparently she went unnoticed during the battle and was now looking for attention. The last thing we are able to interpret from the simulator matrix is Dwayne Johnson silencing the goat woman with a menacing People’s Elbow. Getting up he exclaims, “It’s about time that b**** stopped twerking!”

Take that Miley!

Take that Miley.

As for the real answer to our question? We think Jones could take out you and everyone you know and still make it home for dinner.

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UFC 159: Sonnen vs Jones Early Picks

UFC 159 goes down in under two weeks on Saturday, April 27 at the Prudential Centre in Newark, New Jersey. Overshadowing basically the entire card is the TUF Coach Battle between Chael Sonnen and Jon Jones. We already predicted the outcome of the main event, but there are 7 other fights on this card that we can predict, so let’s get started.

In the co-main event, the number 4 middleweight in the world, Michael Bisping takes on the number 10 middleweight in the world in Alan Belcher. Things have become heated between the two in recent weeks with Belcher saying he will get a tattoo of the British flag on his chest come Sunday after the fights. Bisping was unwilling to play along when Belcher said he has to get a tattoo of Johnny Cash should he lose. Bisping has been in the UFC since winning The Ultimate Fighter 3 and has never lost consecutive fights in his 28 career fights. He’s coming into this fight off a highlight reel head kick TKO loss to Vitor Belfort just 3 months ago. One question mark heading into this is whether 3 months is long enough for Bisping to have recovered and met his training requirements leading up to this fight, considering his medical suspension was 60 days as a result of the knockout. Belcher is also coming off a loss, he lost to Yushin Okami (who has been on quite a tear lately) at UFC 155 in late December. He has only once lost consecutive fights once in his career and that came back in 2005 in his 3rd and 4th fights.

Belcher is able to finish a slightly higher proportion of his fights with 16 of his 18 wins coming by way of submission or knockout. Bisping has finished 18 of 23, but has only lost 5 fights in his career and has a couple more UFC fights under his belt. Our model has Bisping as an extremely heavy favourite and at 1.63 to 1, this bet is definitely worthwhile. We placed a 2 unit bet on Bisping at 1.63 to 1.

Also on the card is a heavyweight showdown between Roy Nelson and Cheick Kongo. Both men will be looking to show they deserve to be in the upper echelon of UFC heavyweights as both seem to be floating around the middle of the division. Nelson beats the competition he should (Mitrione, Herman, Filipovic), but also loses when he’s expected to (Werdum, Mir, Dos Santos). Kongo also holds losses to the divisons elite in Mir and Velasquez, but also a TKO loss to Mark Hunt. Hunt just has super powerful strikes which makes him dangerous in this division as even if he is on his back for most of 2 rounds, the third round sees both men on their feet again. Overall, the fight seems like a relatively even contest, but our model has Kongo as the strong favourite to win. Therefore, we placed a 1.5 unit bet on Kongo at 2.95 to 1.

Finally for today’s picks, we have Phil Davis defeating Vinny Magalhaes. Davis is only sitting at 1.35 to 1 and we feel there is not enough value in betting on him to make the risk worthwhile. Another issue specific to this fight is that the statistics available through Fightmetric only account for Magalhaes recent win over Pokrajac and his two losses in 2008 to Ryan Bader and Eliot Marshall. For now, we are going to hold off on placing a bet in this fight even though we have Phil Davis as a strong favourite.

Bets

Bisping over Belcher. 2 units at 1.63 to 1.
Kongo over Nelson. 1.5 units at 2.95 to 1.
Davis over Magalhaes. Too risky to bet with Davis at 1.35 to 1

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UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen Early Prediction

We are just about a month away from UFC 159 which features Jon Jones vs Chael Sonnen in the main event and takes place on Saturday, April 27, 2013 from the Prudential Centre in Newark, New Jersey. Chael Sonnen earned the fight seemingly by willing to step up on short notice and face Jon Jones back at UFC 151 after Dan Henderson backed out of the fight due to a knee injury. Jones turned down the bout with Sonnen as he felt he didn’t have adequate preparation time and the event was cancelled (for the first time in UFC history).

For once in recent memory, it seems Chael is not being cast as the villain, although his willingness to engage the media had to factor into the UFC’s decision to give him this fight. After not following the TUF series since TUF 10 featuring heavyweights and Evans vs Jackson, the heat between Jones and Sonnen seems relatively mild. In fact, there seeems to be a comradarie and almost a friendship between the two. Both claim there is no love lost and especially in recent media, both have made heated remarks about the other.

To many people, Jon Jones seems to be the ultimate UFC competitor. He possesses great wrestling as evidenced by his 2006 National Junior College Athletic Association championship title and his perfect take down defense in MMA competitions. It is hard to believe any man with 12 UFC fights has never been successfully taken down. In addition, he has incredible, while unorthodox striking. His highlight tape is a great place to witness his striking as many of his recent knockouts have actually been ground and pound finishes. Last, but not least, we cannot talk about Jon Jones without mentioning his prowress on the ground. Not only have 3 of his last 4 victories come by way of submission, they have come via three vastly different submissions. He beat Belfort with an americana, Machida with a standing guillotine and Jackson with a rear naked. After all this, what does Chael Sonnen have that could possibly help him to defeat Jon Jones?

Above all, Chael Sonnen is a relentless competitor and he has unreal cardio. It is important, no matter how overdone, to look back at his UFC 117 fight against Anderson Silva. Silva possesses at 70% takedown defense ratio. While not the best in the UFC, it is high enough to take notice of the fact that Sonnen was able to take him down at will in their first encounter (the second encounter played out much differently). Not only did Sonnen take Silva down, but he was able to maintain the top position and pound on Silva only tiring slightly in the fourth and fifths round, which he paid for when Silva locked up a triangle choke in the fifth. On display in that fight as well was Sonnen’s NCAA All America wrestling credentials.

The Verdict

While Sonnen is one of the top wrestlers in the UFC today, we believe that he won’t be able to take down Jones at will like he could at UFC 117 vs Anderson Silva. In a stand up battle or with Jones on top, we don’t see any way Sonnen will be able to walk away with the victory. In both scenarios that could play out, Jones will be able to finish Sonnen within the 5 allotted rounds. Our mathematical model agrees with our analysis, having Jones as an extremely heavy favourite. At 1.125 to 1, a straight money line bet on Jones doesn’t pay off enough to be worthwhile. Instead, we are placing a 1 unit bet on Jones at 1.25 to 1 to get a finish in this fight. (Jones has finished 6 of his last 7 opponents inside the distance)

Here are the latest odds for UFC 159:


BestFightOdds.com

MMA Math

I came across a somewhat humorous way of predicting fights in MMA. The method is called MMA math and basically the way it works is you take common opponents and try to form a transitive relationship between the 2 opponents to figure out who will win with no value given to method of victory or how well each fighter performed.

This method clearly has some major flaws:
1. It’s difficult to form relationships-from what I’ve seen, sometimes you end up with 5 or 6 fighters in between. Clearly, the more time and opponents in between, the less relevant information available.

2. If you go far enough, a lot of times the relationship could go either way. We can look at 2013’s Chael Sonnen vs Jon Jones for a good example. Jon Jones lost to Matt Hamill who lost to Michael Bisping who lost to Chael Sonnen => Chael Sonnen will win their fight. Conversely, Chael Sonnen lost to Forrest Griffin lost to Mauricio Rua lost to Jon Jones => Jon Jones will win the fight.

3. Method of victory is not considered. A close decision is equivalent to a dominant submission or KO is equivalent to a disqualification.

There are major holes in this method, but I wouldn’t completely disregard performance against common opponents. In my model, I am purely using math, but if you were trying to pick based on other methods, its something that should be considered. In addition, as evidenced by the frequency of UFC title changes, styles play a huge role in MMA and will continue to play a huge role in the future.

Here are the latest UFC 155 odds: (Less than a week away, my picks will be up around Thursday or Friday)

BestFightOdds.com