How Many People Would it Take to Beat Up a UFC Fighter?

The question has haunted the minds of men for decades – until now.

By tweaking our advanced fight predicting simulator matrix we were able to run a series of trials predicting the hypothetical outcome of a “battle” between a UFC fighter and an average Joe. The following post summarizes our shocking (and disturbing) findings.

DISCLAIMER: The following blog post is intended for comedic purposes only. Our apologies in advance if you are at all offended.

To begin our trials we chose none other than the current light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones to represent the fighters of the UFC.  It goes without saying that Bones would make bones of at least 4 grown men for sport, which begs the question:  Just how many men WOULD it take to beat up the champ?

Jon "Bones" Jones

Jon “Bones” Jones

With the tweaks to our model in place we began our first trial.  Jones vs. a single man.  Pointless although necessary for estimating the power of an individual in later trials.

The Result: After double checking for human error, the model produced a probability suggesting that the chances of one man beating up Jon Jones is negative 75%.  Further analysis by repeating the trial 10,000 times reveals that Jones is more likely to be hit by a live whale falling from a monsoon than losing a fight against a single man.

Knowing this our next trial used 5 men.

The Result: Immediately apparent in the model output is the exponential power of 5 men fighting together as a team.  After executing a statistically significant number of trials however, the results speak for themselves.

In the worst instance of all trials, one man was able to hit Jones square in the jaw with a full powered haymaker punch.  The man’s hand shattered up to his elbow.  Jones was unaffected.

In fact, our threat detection variant monitoring Jones’ hypothetical heart beat indicates that even under attack from 5 men, Jones has yet to feel threatened.

So we double the damage. 10 men. To spice it up (and to be fair), we also add 2 women. Were all for equal rights, and maybe they’ll have an outlying effect in the model.

The Results: At this point Jones appears to feel threatened. Through observing 20,000 trials we are able to conclude that the additional pressure of fighting 12 people causes Jones to turn into an even more efficient killing machine. The 10 men are dead within an average of 2 minutes, a kill rate of which even North Korea would approve. The only plausible explanation for this slaughter is that Jon Jones is in fact the first black Super Saiyan.

A Super Saiyan

A Super Saiyan

As for the women? Initially programmed to kill him, Jones saves them for last. He proceeds to initiate a Spartacus-style threesome orgy impregnating them both IN EVERY TRIAL. The mans seed appears to resemble a genetic combination of Michael Phelps and Kanye West.

Exhibit B

Exhibit B

Trial 3. No more ****ing around.

Included in this trial are 6 stormtroopers, 30 men, Agent Smith, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Miley Cyrus. After running only one trial we decide to end the experiment. It turns out some questions are better left unanswered..

Goodbye, Mr. Anderson.

Goodbye, Mr. Anderson.

Jones definitely feels danger here. Before going Super Saiyan he places a cell phone call to Joe Rogan. Joe appears moments later with two kettle bells shaped liked monkey skulls which he uses to violently dispatch of the Stormtroopers. He appears to enjoy doing this very much.

Well done Joe, well done.

Well done Joe, well done.

While Jones engages in speedy-blurred-combat with Agent Smith, The Rock kills 15 of the 30 men accidentally by performing a spinerama-attack with a squat rack. The other 15 men synchronously lose control of their bowels and flee. Seeing this – and now done with the Stormtroopers – Joe Rogan chases them down screeching like an ape proclaiming he is the alpha male and yelling about hunting his own food.

In an honorable (read: strategic) move, The Rock decides to let Jones and Agent Smith continue battle. He places the squat rack on his back and begins to perform step ups on a pile of bodies while shouting out his reps in an ancient tribal language.

Then, in a truly unexplainable turn of events, the women from the previous trial appear out of nowhere to aid Jones. They simultaneously give birth to two boys who mature faster than Shia Labeouf into formidable young warriors. They instantly engage Agent Smith in combat next to the champ.

Seriously, what happened to Even Steven?

Seriously, what happened to Even Steven?

Upon seeing his boys grown into healthy young warriors Jones proceeds to end the battle against Agent Smith the one and only way possible: They must both die. He lowers his guard and Agent Smith punches him straight in the heart. Jones feels the cold envelope him as the agent proceeds to consume him in grey virtual ooze. As the transformation completes both men burst into a sonic explosion of light and sound.

Although physically gone, we can sense that Jones has become more powerful than ever before. Joe Rogan has returned and can be heard muttering something about a waste of meat.

Seeing no point in fighting, The Rock and the Jones Jr’s shake hands. The Jones Jr’s claim to be big fans and demand a picture with their hero. He obliges ever so kindly and immediately posts the picture to his Instagram page applying bad-ass custom filters. He also hashtags. #ImTheRock #ImTHESHIT #theseniggasCRAZY #WTFjusthappen?

Wrapping up, The Jones Jr’s politely decline an invitation from Joe Rogan to appear on his podcast citing an unexplainable sense of destiny to seek out a place they only know to be called the Dagobah System.

After all is said and done the only one remaining on the battle field is Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. Lowering himself to the ground he begins performing a ritual for the dead ensuring their safe passage into the afterlife. Halfway through the ritual he is interrupted by the sound of a goat. He looks over to see Miley Cyrus twerking. Apparently she went unnoticed during the battle and was now looking for attention. The last thing we are able to interpret from the simulator matrix is Dwayne Johnson silencing the goat woman with a menacing People’s Elbow. Getting up he exclaims, “It’s about time that b**** stopped twerking!”

Take that Miley!

Take that Miley.

As for the real answer to our question? We think Jones could take out you and everyone you know and still make it home for dinner.

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UFC on Fuel TV 10: Nogueira vs Werdum Early Picks

While UFC on Fuel TV 10 is not as big an event as those that surround it (UFC 160 and UFC 161), there is no shortage of value on this card from Fortaleza, Brazil. It is also serves as the finale to TUF: Brazil II which features fighters in the welterweight division. The card is about a week away now, taking place on Saturday, June 8, 2013.

The main event of this card features Fabricion Werdum taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in the heavyweight division. The men face off after coaching against each other on the second season of TUF: Brazil. Werdum comes into this fight riding a 2 fight win streak, and is 5-1 in his last 6 including victories over recent heavyweight title contender, Antonio Silva and one of the greatest heavyweight fighters of all time, Fedor Emelianenko (no doubt Fedor was great, but with the 3 consecutive losses to Werdum, Silva and Henderson, was he actually as good as people thought, or did his management just choose good opponents for him?) Nogueira’s recent record has been spotty, going 3-3 in his last 6 with 2 losses to Frank Mir and a loss to the champ, Cain Velasquez. Werdum is 1 inch taller, but the two have identical reach at 77 inches. Our model has Werdum as a very slight favourite in this one. Since he sits at just 1.37 to 1, there is no value in placing a bet.

In a light heavyweight match-up on the card, Thiago Silva welcomes Rafael Cavalcante to the Octagon from Strikeforce. Both guys enter the fight off significant layoffs due to failed drug tests. Cavalcante managed to reach the top of the Strikeforce light heavyweight division, defeating Mohammed “King Mo” Lawal by TKO back in August, 2010. In his first defense, he lost to Dan Henderson by TKO. Silva, on the other hand, has not been able to pick up a (non-reversed) victory in his last 4 fights. In two of those fights, he took home the victory which was subsequently taken away because he failed his post-fight drug test. With losses to top UFC lightheavyweights Rashad Evans, Alexander Gustafsson and Lyoto Machida, Silva is likely a few good victories away from a title shot. The fighters have identical height and reach at 73 and 74 inches respectively. The striking game seems to favour Silva as he lands a higher number of strikes at a similar efficiency while getting hit less often. In addition, he lands more takedowns and has a higher takedown accuracy against higher level opponents than Cavalcante. Our model has Silva as a significant favourite so we placed a 1.5 unit bet at 2.75 to 1.

In the current second fight of the main card, Erick Silva takes on Jason High. In this fight, our model has High, the significant underdog as a significant favourite. High is making his octagon debut after 3 straight Strikeforce victories. Silva is 2-2 in the octagon and will make for a tough test for High to start his UFC career. Silva was able to defeat UFC vet Charlie Brennemen, and he dominated Carlo Prater, but lost the fight via DQ for strikes to the back of the head. In his most recent fight, Silva lost to Jon Fitch at UFC 153 via unanimous decision. The stat line tells us Silva is the more effective striker, but also absorbs way more punches than High. Silva also holds advantages in takedowns and submissions. Realistically, the probability of Silva wiping the mat with High is great, but when our model has a significant underdog winning, we generally will bet with the model. Therefore, we placed a 1.5 unit bet on High at 4.36 to 1.


Werdum over Nogueira. No bet
Silva over Cavalcante. 1.5 unit bet at 2.75 to 1
High over Silva. 1.5 unit bet at 4.36 to 1

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Here are the latest UFC on Fuel TV 10 odds: