UFC 212: Aldo vs Holloway Free Betting Tip

UFC 212: Aldo vs Holloway goes down tomorrow night from Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Ranked among UFC pay-per-view cards so far this year put on by the UFC, it’s definitely not the best card, but it does have some notable fights. Obviously the main event fight between Jose Aldo and Max Holloway should be a decent scrap for the featherweight title, but there are a few other interesting fights like Erick Silva vs Yancy Medeiros, Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes and Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz. In terms of bets for the event, we already posted our 3 bets at Cappertek. One of those will be free here and the other two are available to subscribers or for purchase for just $9.95.

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UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II Betting Recap

Last night UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II went down from Las Vegas and man what a great card it was. There were some awesome finishes, but there was also no lack of controversy. For us, it wasn’t a good night as we went 1-1 on our paid picks for +0.50 units and 0-2 for -3.00 units on our free betting tips. Obviously, you can’t profit every night, but it would have been nice to get at least one of the main card bets right for a small profit. In total, it was a 1-3 night for a 2.50 unit loss. We’ll be back later in the week with at least one free betting tip for the two cards next weekend as well as some paid bets! If you’re interested, here’s the pdf containing our paid betting tips for UFC 181. As well, our paid tips for next weekend’s 2 events are now available for pre-order on our Sellfy page!

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UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II Free Betting Tip

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II is still almost 2 weeks away, but with the main card odds now released, there is one bet we felt compelled to take early and give away for free as we don’t expect the line to last. Our full betting tips won’t be available until next Thursday at the earliest, but you can pre-order them on our Sellfy page to be the first to receive them as they are released. In terms of our recent performance, we had a great month of November going 8-5 for a profit of 11.51 units and an ROI of 42.63%. It was one of our better months in recent memory and got us back on track after losses in both September and October. UFC 181 will be the first event of December and we’ll be looking to cement our place as the top MMA handicappers in the world with a good performance.

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UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler Results and Betting Recap

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler went down tonight and we were not left disappointed. Not only did our bets work out great, going 4-1 for +10.25 units, but we saw a new UFC welterweight champion crowned in an early fight of the year candidate. Without further adue here’s our betting results!

To close out our second parlay we had Johny Hendricks to defeat Robbie Lawler. The first round saw Johny Hendricks in full control, landing more strikes and also spending some time pushing Lawler against the cage. Round 2 saw more of the same with Hendricks picking apart Lawler. Lawler seemed to block most of the damaging strikes, but there was still a bunch landed. Round 3 saw the tide turned. Lawler spent about 30 seconds in dominant control with Hendricks wobbly, but somehow Hendricks stayed up and continued to land for the remainder of the round. Round 4 saw Lawler landing more strikes for the most part, but Hendricks landed a takedown at the end of the round which may or may not have won it with the judges. Round 5 saw Johny Hendricks picking up his pace. He landed combination after combination and spent the last couple minutes in top control. The judges scored it right (for once) giving Hendricks the win 48-47 on all three score cards. Hendricks becomes the NEW UFC welterweight champion with the victory and we profit 2.82 units on our bet.

Our second parlay of the night was on Myles Jury and Johny Hendricks to win their respective fights. The bet was 3 units at 1.94 to 1. First up was Myles Jury to defeat Diego Sanchez. Jury used technical striking and great fight IQ to keep Diego Sanchez and avoid the trademarked Diego Sanchez rock ’em sock ’em robots type of fight. Neither fighter was ever really in danger of being finished, but it was an easy decision for the judges to make as they awarded it to Jury 30-27×2 and 29-28. We had Johny Hendricks to succeed Georges St Pierre by winning the welterweight title in the main event.

In the co-main event, we had Tyron Woodley to defeat Carlos Condit. Our bet was 3 units at 2.58 to 1. By fight time, the line on Woodley had risen to 2.85 to 1. Woodley did a good job of landing powerful strikes in the first round. Condit showed off a great beard though absorbing everything Woodley threw at him. In the second round, it looked like Condit got injured on a Woodley takedown. Woodley landed a leg kick that sent Condit spinning and Condit went down in a heap. We profit 4.74 units.

Our third bet of the night was on Jake Shields and Hector Lombard to fight for less than 1.5 rounds. The bet here was 1.5 units at 2.70 to 1 and was more of a value bet on the steep line and the assumption that Lombard was likely to finish it quickly if he was going to win. The bet looked good as Lombard blitzed and landed strikes at will early in the fight, knocking Shields down a couple times. Unfortunately for our bet, Shields survived and the fight lasted more than a round and a half. Lombard ended up taking a unanimous decision victory. We lost 1.5 units.

Our second bet of the night was on Ovince St Preux and Nikita Krylov to fight for less than 1.5 rounds. The bet was 1.5 units at 1.95 to 1. St Preux immediately got a takedown and made Krylov pay for holding on to a guillotine as he got a submission via a Von Flue choke. We profit 1.43 units.

The first leg of our first parlay was Dennis Bermudez to defeat Jimy Hettes. The bet was a 3 unit parlay on Bermudez and Andrade at 1.92 to 1. Bermudez came out like a man on fire, being all over Hettes for the entire first round. He landed at least 4, maybe 5 takedowns, but didn’t manage, or seem to try to hard to hold Hettes down. Second round was mostly similar except at the end when Hettes managed to get Bermudez’s back. Bermudez was able to stand up as the round ended and we felt the round easily went to Bermudez as he almost finished Hettes via strikes mid-round. The third round saw Bermudez on top for a significant portion. Eventually, Bermudez lets Hettes stand up and on the feet it was all Bermudez. After falling several times, the judge ended it awarding Bermudez the TKO finish. The second leg of the parlay was Jessica Andrade to defeat Raquel Pennington. In a fast paced women’s fight, Andrade got the better of Pennington for the most of 2 rounds, but the third round we had Pennington winning. The judges saw it the same was as us with 2 of them awarding the fight to Andrade. We profit 2.76 units.

Good Bets
Hendricks/Jury Parlay. 3 units at 1.94 to 1 (+2.82 units)
Woodley over Shields. 3 units at 2.58 to 1 (+4.74 units)
Under 1.5 Rounds – St Preux/Krylov. 1.5 units at 1.95 to 1 (+1.43 units)
Bermudez/Andrade Parlay. 3 units at 1.92 to 1 (+2.76 units)

Lost Bets
Under 1.5 – Shields/Lombard. 1.5 units at 2.70 to 1 (-1.50 units)

Event Record: 4-1
Event Profit: 10.25 units

Main Card Results

Hedricks over Lawler via unanimous decision.
Woodley over Condit via second round TKO (injury)
Jury over Sanchez via unanimous decision
Lombard over Shields via unanimous decision
St Preux over Krylov via first round submission

Preliminary Card Results

Gastelum over Story via split decision
Andrade over Pennington via split decision
Bermudez over Hettes via third round TKO
Garcia over Spencer via split decision
Trevino over Forte via unanimous decision
Scoggins over Campuzano via unanimous decision
Strickland over McDaniel via first round submission (rear naked choke)
Whiteford over Pineda via unanimous decision

Predicting UFC Champions At The End of 2014: Welterweight, Lightweight and Featherweight

With 2013 all wrapped up and 2014 just beginning, we thought “what better time than now to look at each UFC champion to determine who we think will hold each belt at the end of 2014?” In this second article of three, we will be looking at the three UFC weight classes sandwiched in the middle. Our first installment covered the UFC’s three heaviest weight classes and our last installment will cover the two lightest divisions and the women’s division. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.


WELTERWEIGHT

Current Champion: Vacant (Previously Georges St Pierre)

Top 2014 Contenders:

Johny Hendricks:

Hendricks takes on Robbie Lawler at UFC 170 and should be heavily favoured to take the belt in that match-up. In his fight with St Pierre, he showed that he has the striking, grappling and wrestling to match-up with any top competitor in the UFC’s welterweight division.

Robbie Lawler:

Surprisingly he is only 31 years old, but having somewhat of a late career resurgence with a TKO wins Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker and a split decision win over the now #4 ranked welterweight Rory MacDonald.  Lawler likely lacks the wrestling ability not only to win the welterweight title, which he will be hard pressed to do in the first place, but to maintain it through 1 or 2 title defenses in 2014.

Carlos Condit:

Condit’s only losses in the last few years have come to Georges St Pierre, who’s now out of the picture, and Johny Hendricks, who is favoured to be the new champion at UFC 171.  Condit is well versed in all areas of the game, but his great cardio will make him the biggest threat to Hendricks should Hendricks win the title as expected at UFC 171.

Tyron Woodley:

Part of our consideration for who the champions at the end of 2014 has to include who has a logical path to the belt.  Even though Woodley is currently ranked #11, he looked outstanding in knocking out Josh Koscheck and Jay Hieron and lost by split decision to Jake Shields.  It is very likely the UFC will give him a shot at the winner of Hendricks vs Lawler should he be able to defeat Condit in devastating fashion.

Other Contenders:

Demian Maia absolutely smothered Jon Fitch at UFC 156 in February, displaying incredible ability to control the action for all 3 rounds.  His split decision loss to Jake Shields likely makes Maia’s chase to the title impossible in 2014.  Another guy who dropped down to welterweight in 2013, Hector Lombard likely has a case for a title shot if he can manage to defeat the aforementioned Shields in devastating fashion also at UFC 171.  Should Shields be able to smother the striking of Lombard, he will also find himself close to a title shot.  Finally, at 32 years old, another guy who seems to be having a late career resurgence, Matt Brown will also be looking for a devastating win to put himself in title contention.

Predicted Champion:

Johny Hendricks will be UFC welterweight champion at the end of 2014.  His wrestling and devastating striking will keep him above the competition.  His first defense will likely be Carlos Condit, but in their first match-up, he was able to take the Natural Born Killer down an incredible 12 times and we expect a similar result when they meet for the second time.  With his 94% takedown defense, Tyron Woodley may actually be the bigger threat to Hendricks’ reign with 94% of takedowns defended, unfortunately for him, we don’t see him getting past Condit when they meet in January.


LIGHTWEIGHT

Champion: Anthony Pettis

TJ Grant:

Grant is currently the number 3 UFC lightweight and the only one of the top 3 who hasn’t recently received a title shot. He stunned Gray Maynard in May with a TKO victory, the latest of 5 straight wins, 3 of which came inside the distance. A scheduled bout with Pettis for the title was called off when Grant suffered a concussion and Pettis also suffered a knee injury. When Pettis comes back, he will likely meet the 29 year old Canadian, Grant, in his next fight.

Benson Henderson:

Henderson went on a streak since joining the UFC from the now defunct WEC. He managed 7 straight wins including winning the UFC’s lightweight title and defending it 3 times before losing to his old WEC rival, and still lightweight champion, Anthony Pettis. It seems in the noise of losing the championship, Henderson has been somewhat forgotten. With a couple wins in 2014, he will be back in the title picture. Unfortunately, time is not on his side with Pettis sidelined with a knee injury likely until mid-2014.

Other Contenders:

We have to consider the featherweight champ, Jose Aldo in the mix when looking at possible lightweight champions at the end of this year. There is a lot left to be determined, but should he successfully defend his title at UFC 169 against Ricardo Lamas, and defeat Chad Mendes in a rematch of their fight from just over 2 years ago in which Mendes was knocked out, a move to lightweight would be a likely possibility for Aldo. The last Strikeforce lightweight champion, Gilbert Melendez may also have another opportunity to capture the gold in 2014 with his last loss coming to Henderson in a split decision in April of last year. In terms of younger guys who could be in title range with a couple big wins, we have to consider the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov who has been on fire since debuting in the UFC in January, 2012 5 wins and 2 coming inside the distance (and has struggled to find fights lately).

Predicted Champion:

In a strong pool of contenders, we don’t see any that are overly likely to be able to defeat Anthony Pettis. Henderson already has 2 losses to Pettis and Melendez has lost to Henderson. MMA math isn’t the greatest concept, but we do think Pettis has the skill to take care of Melendez. If Aldo were to say today that he’s moving to the lightweight division, he would be our champion, but the uncertainty of his move to lightweight keeps us from making that prediction. The UFC lightweight champion at the end of 2014 will be Anthony “Showtime” Pettis.


FEATHERWEIGHT

Champion: Jose Aldo

Top Contenders:

Ricardo Lamas:

Lamas is the first and most obvious contender to be featherweight champion should Aldo not be the title holder at the end of 2014. He get his shot to earn the title on February 1, 2014 at UFC 169. He is a former NCAA Division III All American wrestler. Lamas has been able to turn his wrestling game into a complete mixed martial arts skill set. He has 4 straight wins over decent competition including Cub Swanson (submission), Hatsu Hioki and Erik Koch (TKO).

Chad Mendes:

As the number 1 ranked UFC featherweight, Mendes has been on an absolute tear as of late. He was the first man to be able to finish Clay Guida and that marked his fourth straight TKO victory. In his latest fight, where he was fighting off a sinus infection, he looked absolutely dominant in defeating Nik Lentz by unanimous decision. Not only is Mendes a scary striker, but he can absolutely dominate with his wrestling when he chooses. He did suffer a TKO loss to Aldo however, the only one of his career, back in January, 2014.

Cub Swanson:

Swanson is another featherweight who has been destroying the competition, with 5 straight wins and 4 coming via TKO or KO. Interestingly, before joining the UFC, Swanson only went 5-3 in WEC competition. He followed that up with a submission loss to Lamas before reeling off the aforementioned streak of success. Swanson is a fearsome striker who also holds a black belt in jiu jitsu. It seems to be a trend that the successful guys in these lighter divisions have to be less one dimensional than those in the heavier weight classes.

Other Contenders:

Obviously, we have to mention Frankie Edgar, the former UFC lightweight champion who was told by many people his natural weight class was 145. He debuted at 145 with a title shot versus Aldo, which he lost relatively convincingly via unanimous decision. The only lower ranked fighter we could see making a title run this year is Conor McGregor. Mcgregor only debuted in the UFC in April of 2013 so a title shot for him in 2014 is probably unlikely, and his ACL injury will likely sideline him much of the year.

Predicted Champion:

The division is Jose Aldo’s for the taking. We feel the biggest threat to Aldo is Chad Mendes, but for Mendes to take the victory, he would have to figure out a way to get Aldo on the ground and maintain top position. No easy feat against the beast of a champion from Brazil. If Aldo makes the decision to move up to lightweight during 2014, our pick for champion would be Chad Mendes. There is too much uncertainty there right now though for us to make that call. Our predicted end of 2014 UFC featherweight champion is Jose Aldo.


We’ll be back with our picks for the lightest of the weight classes as well as the women in our next installment. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest. In terms of event picks, the next UFC event will go down January 15 an will feature Luke Rockhold and Costa Philippou in the main event! Stay tuned for our predictions for this pretty solid UFC Fight Night card!